Celtics vs Nets Picks and Predictions: Kyrie Goes for 30+ Without KD

The Eastern Conference's two best teams will collide when the Boston Celtics visit the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night.

Boston (30-12) owns the best record in the NBA and has won four straight heading into tonight’s game. Brooklyn (27-13) is just two games back after winning 14 of its last 15 games but will now have to play without injured superstar Kevin Durant. 

Brooklyn will need Kyrie Irving to step into Durant’s shoes if it wants a chance to hold off Boston on Thursday. We’ll take a look at Irving’s new role in our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Nets below.

Celtics vs Nets best odds

Celtics vs Nets picks and predictions

The Brooklyn Nets lost Kevin Durant for about a month with an MCL sprain in his right knee, which the 34-year-old suffered after colliding with Jimmy Butler during Brooklyn’s 102-101 win over the Miami Heat on Sunday. It’s the second year in a row in which Durant has missed time due to an MCL issue following a collision with an opposing player.

There’s no understating how big the loss of Durant is for the Nets. He's averaging 29.7 points per game but is also grabbing 6.7 rebounds and dishing out 5.3 assists each night. Durant was in the running for his second career MVP award before the injury, and Brooklyn will hope he misses as little time as possible.

Thankfully, the Nets have other players who are capable of leading an elite NBA team. Chief among them is Kyrie Irving, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career this season. 

Irving is averaging 26 points per game this year and has done so while playing second fiddle to Durant in the Brooklyn offense. He’s shooting the ball at 48.8%, and while his percentage from beyond the arc is down, he’s still deadly at the charity stripe, hitting 90.7% of his free throws. 

Irving has done this without a particularly high usage rate and without pushing his playing time. The seven-time All-Star is playing 36.5 minutes a night, with a usage rate of 29.1%. Those numbers should go up without Durant on the floor, who was commanding a 31.8% usage rate this season.

In other words, Durant’s absence will mean there’s a lot more of the ball to go around for the next month. Irving is not only in an excellent position to take advantage of these opportunities but might be the only Nets player who truly can. 

Outside of Durant and Irving, the Nets' next leading scorer has been Nic Claxton, who has averaged just 11.9 points per game this year. No other player is in double digits. It’s possible that Ben Simmons (7.7 ppg) could step up with Durant out, but he has never been a great scorer, and he has looked even less interested in taking shots in Brooklyn than he did with the Philadelphia 76ers.

At least for the time being, this is Irving’s offense, and the ball will go through him on most possessions. I’m targeting him to score big against the Boston Celtics tonight, whether or not that’s a formula for Brooklyn to actually win the game. 

The consensus points scored prop for Irving has the Over/Under at 29.5. I’m on the Over, as it’s hard to imagine anyone else doing much of the scoring for Brooklyn tonight.

My best bet: Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 points (-105)

Celtics vs Nets spread analysis

NBA odds opened with Boston as a 3-point road favorite. That’s still the consensus line as of noon on Thursday, with few sites moving off of that number.

Both of these teams have been great this season, but that’s been more a matter of meeting expectations than exceeding them. In other words, both teams have been just average for bettors. The Celtics are 22-19-1 against the spread, while the Nets are 19-19-2 ATS on the year.

The biggest factor to consider tonight will be the impact of Durant’s injury. Last season, Brooklyn went just 5-16 in the 21 games that Durant missed. That has to worry Nets fans, who will hope that their star comes back closer to the most optimistic estimates of 2-3 weeks from now. 

I don’t think Brooklyn will be nearly that bad without Durant this season, but there will still be a period of adjustment. Irving can lead the offense, but without Durant on the court, the Nets will have to find a reliable second option to find consistent success. That’s especially true against elite opponents like the Celtics. 

This is a rough matchup for a Brooklyn team that will be learning how to play without their best player. I like the Celtics -3 in tonight’s game. 

Celtics vs Nets Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 227.5. The consensus Over/Under has held steady at that number, though you can find totals a point higher or lower if you shop around.

Both of these teams play at a fairly average pace, though Boston tends to play the higher-scoring games of the two. Based on their overall averages — Boston has played to an average total of 231.2, while Brooklyn averages 225.2 — the total looks to be right on the mark.

However, we once again have to factor Durant’s injury into our calculus. While we’ve mostly focused on the hole that Durant will leave in the Brooklyn offense, he is also one of the best defensive players for the Nets. Durant has a defensive rating of 110.9 this season, ranking him 25th in the NBA.

Still, I think the Nets will feel a bigger loss on offense than on defense with Durant out of the lineup, at least in their first game without him. That has me leaning towards the Under here, as it’s easy to imagine a game where Brooklyn tries to slow things down a bit as it figures out how it will win games with its new lineup.

Celtics vs Nets betting trend to know

The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nets in Brooklyn. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Nets.

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