Clippers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Banged-Up Miami Struggles to Score

Coming off a crushing 116-111 overtime loss at Orlando, the Los Angeles Clippers move on to Miami in the third of four straight road matchups.

The Clippers currently sit ninth in the Western Conference with a 14-12 record and face an 11-14 Miami team coming off one day of rest. The Heat are in the midst of a two-game losing streak and have nine players listed on the injury report, with star Jimmy Butler questionable tonight.

Can the home team still hang with the battle-worn Clippers, who have dropped three of their last four? Below are our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Heat on Dec. 8.

(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Thursday evening's news that Kawhi Leonard would sit out for the Clippers.)

Clippers vs Heat best odds

Clippers vs Heat picks and predictions

Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo, and Nikola Jovic are each listed as day-to-day with injuries but are probable for tonight's matchup. However, Jimmy Butler will be a game-time decision and may rest as the Heat remain cautious with his knee. 

The six-time NBA All-Star had missed seven consecutive games before playing Friday night in a 120-116 overtime win against the Boston Celtics, in which he racked up 25 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, a steal, and a block. He tallied 18 points, six rebounds, eight assists, and one steal in Monday night’s loss at Memphis, then sat out Tuesday’s 116-96 defeat against the Detroit Pistons. 

Herro was the leading scorer in the Heat’s previous two games and may need to step up again if Butler is sidelined, but his work will be cut out for him against a Clippers squad that ranks fifth in the league in defensive rating (109.8) and fifth in opponent field-goal percentage (45.4%).

The Heat, meanwhile, rank 26th in offensive rating (109.1) and shoot 44.9% from the field, the fourth-worst mark in the NBA. They particularly struggled against Memphis — ranked 10th in defensive rating — on Monday evening, combining to go 31 of 79 from the floor (39.2%) in the 101-93 setback.

With the Clippers mostly at full strength and Miami riddled with injuries, scoring will likely be hard to come by.

The Heat have lost seven of their last 11 games, and they've totaled 110 or more points just four times in that stretch. Two of those four came against Washington’s defense, which ranks 20th in defensive rating, and the other two were against Boston, who let Miami shoot 47.5% and 52.2% from the field, respectively, in those contests.

In their overtime loss on Wednesday, the Clippers held Orlando to 42.1% from the field and 28.6% from the three. While they may be worn down from a long night, they’re healthier than the Heat and should be able to keep Miami from breaking the 110-point mark.  

My best bet: Heat team total Under 109.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Clippers vs Heat spread analysis

In spite of the injuries, Miami is a 5.5-point home favorite against the Clippers, who are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games overall.

Butler’s availability will determine a lot of the outcome on Thursday. He’s averaged 17.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists across 17 matchups with the Clippers over his career, and the Heat are 4-6 in games without him this season.

Miami is just 3-9-1 ATS at home this season, the worst ATS home record in the NBA, and 4-11-1 ATS when favored, the second-lowest mark in the league.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, has a better record ATS on the road, going 6-7, as opposed to 5-8 at home. The Clippers also boast a 2-2 ATS record as a road underdog.

For the second straight game, Los Angeles may be without both Marcus Morris and John Wall, who are third and fourth on the team in average scoring, but they can lean on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, who returned to play in a 119-117 win over Charlotte on Dec. 5 after a lengthy absence.

In the Clippers’ last two games, the pair have combined to score 35 against Charlotte and 25 vs. Orlando, while Ivica Zubac has been the star on the boards in LA's last two.

Clippers vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup opened around 213.5 at most sportsbooks, by far the lowest total from tonight's slate of games.

The Over is 4-0 in the Clippers’ last four road games and 6-1-1 in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Under is 20-9 in the team’s last 29 games overall.

The Over has hit in all four of the Heat’s last four vs. a team with a winning record, and it has hit in six of Miami’s last seven home games.

The Heat have allowed at least 116 points in three of their last four, but Los Angeles has surrendered the same mark in all four of their recent matchups.

Offense has also been a problem for both of these defensive stalwarts. The Clippers are 5-5 since Nov. 19 and have put up 112 points or fewer in each of their last five losses, including Wednesday’s defeat, in which LA failed to score in the final 3:22 of regulation.

Miami has not broken the 100-point mark in its last two.

Nonetheless, the Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Miami and 6-0 in the last six meetings overall. The Over is also 8-5 in Miami’s home games and 7-6 in Los Angeles’ 13 road matchups this season.

Clippers vs Heat betting trend to know

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Heat.

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