Clippers vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Dinwiddie Gets It Done for Dallas

Maybe, just maybe, after a season thrown off by injuries and load management, we’re finally going to see the real Clippers for an extended stretch – starting with this afternoon’s matchup against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are back, but the clock is ticking for the Clippers to establish the on-court chemistry they need before they can even think about a deep playoff run. There’s a lot of work ahead, and the visitors only just scraped past the San Antonio Spurs on Friday. Leonard had 36 points in the victory.

The Mavericks are only 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers in a tightly packed Western Conference. They’re coming off a solid 115-90 win over the Miami Heat last time out – led by Doncic’s 34-point, 12-rebound night – but Dallas has lost six of its last 10 games in a wobbly start to 2023.

Get the lowdown on today’s showdown with our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs Mavericks.

Clippers vs Mavericks best odds

Clippers vs Mavericks picks and predictions

We’ve seen this Clippers-Mavericks movie before, including two gripping playoff series – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on one side, and Luka Doncic on the other. Despite losing both those series, the Mavericks’ formula remains unchanged, with Doncic running every aspect of the offense and recording a sky-high usage rate.

But if we’ve learned anything, it’s that the Slovenian superstar needs a steady secondary ball-handler alongside him to hang in this matchup and reduce the heavy lifting. The Clippers are sure to send double teams at Doncic (even elite defenders like Leonard and George have struggled in that one-on-one matchup) and dare the other Mavericks to beat them.

That’s where Spencer Dinwiddie comes in as the No. 2 option. The departure of Jalen Brunson and the injuries to Maxi Kleber and (most recently) Christian Wood have shortened Jason Kidd’s rotation, setting up Dinwiddie’s playmaking and scoring as even more crucial ingredients for this offense.

I see Dinwiddie getting a lot of good looks this afternoon. He’s scored 17 or more points in each of his last five games, capped by 28 points against the Trail Blazers last weekend. In each of his last two games – against the Heat and Hawks – Dinwiddie has attempted 10 threes, and he’s been getting to the free-throw line more regularly this month. 

While a matchup against the Clippers’ perimeter defenders is tough, Dinwiddie is in a nice groove, attacking scrambling defenses that are zoned in on stopping Doncic.

In the limited minutes that Doncic sits, Dinwiddie will be given the keys to the offense. He’s poised for another productive outing here.

My best bet: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 16.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Clippers vs Mavericks spread analysis

Dallas is the slight favorite with the oddsmakers, but it’s essentially a coin-flip game. The Mavericks have been solid at home this season (17-7) but – as the franchise continues its search for a co-star for Doncic – they feel a little vulnerable against the Clippers’ All-Star wing duo.

Neither team has been much help covering the spread in recent weeks. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have failed to cover in each of their last six contests folliwing an ATS win.

The Clippers are 11-13 on the road, but it’s tough to read too much into those numbers when Ty Lue has been forced to shuffle his lineups so frequently. The visitors are well-versed on the key themes when facing the Mavericks. Can they keep Doncic out of the paint? How many minutes can Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac play when Doncic is relentlessly hunting them in the halfcourt?

For Dallas, it so often comes down to 3-point shooting. Count on Doncic to make the right reads, but Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr. have to cash in from deep.

The teams have split their two meetings so far this season, with the Clippers winning the latest clash on January 10 as Leonard’s 33 points trumped a 43-point effort from Doncic.

Clippers vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

If the first two meetings between these teams this season are any indication (204 and 214 total points), the Under is worth a long look for this afternoon’s clash, especially with the array of talented wing defenders on both rosters.

But keep in mind that the Clippers are looking healthier than they were in those previous games. George didn’t play at all in the January 10 affair. The Mavericks are in an offensive groove, too, scoring 115 points or more in their last five games. Leonard and Doncic are both coming off big scoring nights on Friday.

The Over has hit in the Mavericks’ last four games following an ATS win, and in each of their last four Sunday games.

Clippers vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Mavericks in Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.

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