There are just four games on the NBA betting board this Thursday, with the final contest taking place between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets.
The Clips have lost three in a row and could be without their two best players for this road clash against one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Can Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets continue their dominance at home and cover the 5-point spread tonight? I let you know with my best Clippers vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for January 5.
Clippers vs Nuggets best odds
Clippers vs Nuggets picks and predictions
The big question for the Clippers is the statuses of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Although George is questionable with a hamstring injury, Leonard wasn't listed on the latest injury report and is expected to play. Even with Leonard, this is a really tough spot for the Clips, who are on a three-game skid and have played a grueling schedule.
They are fresh off a 10-point loss at home to Miami but that was just their first game at home after five consecutive away contests, and now they're back on the road at one of the toughest venues to play in. The Nuggets are 14-3 SU with a net rating of +9.2 at home while winning eight consecutive games at Ball Arena.
The Clippers play hard on the defensive end of the floor but they struggle to guard opposing centers allowing 23.6 ppg on 59% shooting to the position. That's bad news against Nikola Jokic, who averages 25.6 ppg on 61.5% shooting while also adding 9.5 assists and 10.8 rebounds per game.
The Clips have also been very inefficient on offense and won't be able to take advantage of Denver's shaky defense — especially if George sits out.
My best bet: Nuggets -5 (-110 at bet365)
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Clippers vs Nuggets spread analysis
The Clippers are three games above .500 and battling for a playoff spot in the West but it's tough for them to get into a rhythm with George and Leonard constantly banged up.
They are coming off a 110-100 home loss to the Heat with Leonard sitting out due to a non-covid illness. They shot just 44.7% from inside the arc in that contest and snagged just three offensive rebounds, which have been problem areas for them all season.
John Wall has been a complete disappointment with his new team and L.A. is 27th in the league in offensive rating by averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions.
However, the Clips are also holding opponents to an identical 110.1 points per 100 possessions, which is good for fifth in the league in defensive rating.
The Nuggets are coming off a 124-11 road loss to the Timberwolves but they're still 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in their last nine games. Jokic could be on his way to his third MVP award and is leading the NBA in PER, win shares, box plus/minus, and VORP (value over replacement player).
He's not the only capable scorer on Denver, however, with Jamal Murray (18 ppg, 5.6 apg), Aaron Gordon (17.1 ppg on 58.3 FG%), and Michael Porter Jr. (16.7 ppg, 42.2 3PT%) also contributing on offense.
With such a multifaceted offense and Jokic at the helm, it's little surprise that Denver is second in the league in offensive rating with 116.6 points per 100 possessions. However, the Nuggets have struggled on the other end of the floor and rank 25th in defensive rating at 114.5.
Clippers vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis
The Clips are 28th in the NBA in turnovers per offensive play (14%), 24th in 2-point percentage (52.6%), and 20th in offensive rebounding rate (22.4%). Combine that with the ninth-slowest pace in the league and this is a team that is just 28th in the league with 109.5 ppg.
However, they also hold foes to just 109.4 ppg and do an excellent job of defending the arc by limiting opponents to 34% shooting from long range. They will be tested in that area by the Nuggets, who lead the league with a 39.8 3PT% with that number jumping up to 41.9% at home.
The Nuggets are the complete opposite of the Clippers, boasting an elite offense and a shaky defense. They are second in the league with a 50.8 FG% but also allow opponents to shoot 48.6% from the field — the fifth-worst number in the league.
That said they limit foes to a 45.9 FG% at home and they also play at a below-average pace, which has resulted in them allowing 109.9 ppg at Ball Arena.
Clippers vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Nuggets.
Clippers vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Thursday, January 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
