With all the excitement surrounding the NBA Playoffs and the list of contenders in the Western Conference, basketball bettors may be forgetting about the Los Angeles Clippers.
It’s excusable, considering the Clippers bobbed about during the regular season, barely surviving without their stars and finishing the season just above .500 – enough to earn the No. 8 seed in the conference and a date with the No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in game.
However, L.A. enters the mini tournament winners of five straight and with star forward Paul George rounding into form since returning for the home stretch bookies have it as a short underdog Tuesday night.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers at Timberwolves on April 12.
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Clippers vs Timberwolves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and that spread has bounced between -4 and -2.5 in the hours since opening, with the market consensus settling in at -2.5 as of Monday morning. The total hit the board at 233.5 points and is down to 230.5 with early play on the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Clippers vs Timberwolves predictions
Predictions made on 4/11/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Clippers vs Timberwolves game info
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Clippers vs Timberwolves betting preview
Key injuries
Clippers: Luke Kennard G (Questionable), Nicolas Batum F (Questionable).
Timberwolves: D'Angelo Russell G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Minnesota. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Timberwolves.
Clippers vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Clippers are among the hottest teams in the West, peaking at the proper time with the play-in up next. And while the streak featured some cupcake foes and elite teams like Phoenix and Milwaukee resting their stars, L.A. still managed to cover the spread in four of those five contests.
It also sat its own starters in the season finale win over Oklahoma City and brings fresh legs and a fresh take on defense into Tuesday’s road game. Los Angeles was one of the best defensive teams in the league until the break, then saw that stinginess sway since mid-February. However, it boasted an NBA-best 103.2 defensive rating in the five games in April and will need to continue that approach against this high-octane Timberwolves attack.
Minnesota closed the campaign as the highest-scoring team in the NBA, putting up almost 116 points per outing, but that hasn’t been enough down the stretch.
The Wolves wobbled in the final 10 games of the schedule, finishing with a 4-6 straight up mark and 2-8 count against the spread in that span. Minnesota managed 119 points per game over those 10 contests but hemorrhaged almost 123 points against.
The Clipper's offense was inconsistent most of the year but has really found their identity with the return of Paul George as the go-to scorer. Since his return to action at the end of March, their offensive rating has skyrocketed from 107.8 (26th) to 127.1, with the team putting up more than 127 points in those seven games.
While this spike in production is likely unsustainable, there’s no denying how much tougher the Clips are with George on the floor and how much it makes everyone else better. Los Angeles has seven players averaging double figures and padded its depth with the recent return of Norman Powell in the final two games.
The Clippers roll with one of the better benches in the league, averaging more than 19 and a half minutes per game and contributing 40 points per contest off the pine.
Minnesota, on the other hand, doesn’t go as deep into the rotation as L.A. and while it scores a ton of buckets, the bulk of those come from three sources: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell – a trio that notches 55% of the Timberwolves’ total point production.
Russell is already trying to get over a non-COVID illness that’s sidelined him the past two games and Towns has had moderate success against the Clips this season, averaging only 15 points on 42% shooting in three matchups.
If the Clippers can clamp down on one of those standouts, L.A. has a great shot of stealing the No. 7 seed and setting up a Round 1 showdown with Memphis.
Prediction: Clippers +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
This total has already slimmed significantly, dropping as many as three points at some shops. The Clippers are playing at a much higher rate on offense but don’t want to get into a shootout with the Wolves, who can bury opponents under a wave of transition triples if they get hot – especially at home.
The best defense against Minnesota’s motives is the calculated and efficient offense the Clips are currently running. Los Angeles’ pace rating remains among the lower half of the league and the team is firing at an effective field goal rate of 61.3% (third best) since George’s return.
That means if Minnesota can’t suddenly snap out of it on defense – and it won’t – it will be inbounding the ball on plenty of possessions, giving time for L.A. to get back down the floor and set up on defense.
When the Timberwolves can’t attack in transition, they lean heavily into spot-up shooting in the halfcourt – something their opponent is particularly good at defending, ranked out third in points allowed per play and scoring frequency. And when Minnesota can push the pace, Los Angeles is just as stout at defending transition attacks (fifth best).
Prediction: Under 230.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The Clippers could be that one lower seed no one wants to play in the postseason. They were built to be a title contender this season, but injuries to George and Kawhi Leonard left the rest of the roster to fend for themselves.
But battling to stay afloat every night has hardened this Clippers team, which now has a legit game-breaking superstar in George who can take and make the big shots. Minnesota will throw defensive stopper and former Clipper Patrick Beverley at PG on Tuesday, and while I don’t think Beverley slows George down, the Clips have ample support staff to pick up the slack.
This deep L.A. roster gets the job done in a number of ways and is playing the best two-way basketball of any team entering the postseason or play-in tournament. This spread is already shrinking and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets even smaller by tipoff Tuesday.
We’re passing on the points and taking Los Angeles to win this matchup outright.
Pick: Clippers moneyline (+130 at Bet365)
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