Grizzlies vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Morant Mediocre in Return From All-Star Break

The NBA is back, and the first night following the All-Star break is highlighted by a conceivable Finals preview.

While it is not likely the Memphis Grizzlies face the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA Finals, anytime a pair of Top 3 seeds face each other, that possibility is viable and exciting.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs 76ers on Thursday, February 23.

Grizzlies vs 76ers best odds

Grizzlies vs 76ers picks and predictions

Two versions of long layoffs have been applicable in Ja Morant’s four-year career: One, the first game of the season, and two, the first game after the All-Star break. Morant’s performances in those two scenarios are wildly disparate.

Excluding the first game of his career, he has averaged 38.3 points in three season openers. In the first game back from the break in the last three seasons, he has averaged 20 points. If he makes a three tonight against the 76ers, it will be the first three Morant has ever made in the first game back from the All-Star break, going 0-for-7 on this occasion the last three years.

His struggles have gone beyond gross points. His career rate of 7.4 assists per game falls to 6.7 assists in this situation. He also shoots just 41.2% from the field, compared to 47.2% in his career.

Let’s not try to figure out why Morant struggles so much coming back from the mid-season pause, and instead just acknowledge that he does. Thus, his point total Over/Under of 26.5 presents a ripe opportunity, especially considering the Philadelphia defense is better than many may realize.

Of course, some of that ties to Joel Embiid’s looming presence in the lane. As fearless as Morant is driving to the hoop, it is rather hard to envision him trying to dunk over the 7-foot Cameroonian.

An opposing player has scored 30 or more points a total of 19 times against the 76ers this season. Yes, that is a few points higher than Morant’s prop tonight, but let’s use it to ascertain what scoring binges are most plausible against Philadelphia. Eight of those came from definitive frontcourt players, including Kristaps Porzingis and Julius Randle twice apiece.

Of the remaining 11, five hit at least four 3s to spur their scoring, something Morant has done only five times in 48 games this year. Of those six guards to crack 30 against the Sixers without an over-reliance on shots from deep, four of them made at least seven free throws, highlighted by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 16-of-16 showing from the charity stripe in mid-January.

Morant can rise to that level, but it is still ahead of his usual, averaging 6.2 made free throws per game and hitting six or fewer in 28 of his 48 games this year.

To pour it in against Philadelphia, Morant will need to exceed all his season averages on a night when he annually struggles.

My best bet: Ja Morant Under 26.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)

Grizzlies vs 76ers spread analysis

Despite tonight’s game being open for action for the better part of a week, there has been little movement in this line, opening with Philadelphia favored by four points on Monday, and falling to a constant -3.5 after briefly touching -4.5.

Some of that edge ties to home-court advantage, and some of it ties to the fact that Memphis has gone 4-6 in its last 10 games overall, both SU and ATS. Three of those spread victories for the Grizzlies came as hefty favorites of at least 6.5 points.

The 76ers, meanwhile, are 7-3 in their last 10, again both SU and ATS. That includes a 4-0 run for both spread and moneyline bettors to close out the unofficial first half of the campaign.

All trends lean toward Philadelphia, and not just the short-term ones. Memphis is 9-17-2 ATS on the road this year, while the 76ers are 20-10-1 ATS at home.

Grizzlies vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

The total moved a bucket this week, hitting the market on Tuesday at 228.5, and rising to 230.5 by Thursday morning. That may be based on unfounded faith in Morant.

Looking at the Grizzlies' last couple of weeks, the Over has gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, with those seven Unders hitting by an average of 18.8 points.

Philadelphia’s last 10 games have gone 4-5-1 to the Over, though oddly enough, those Unders have also been rather resounding, hitting by an average of 20.5 points.

These teams combined for only 226 points when they met in Memphis on Dec. 2. 

Grizzlies vs 76ers betting trend to know

Memphis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. 76ers.

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