Grizzlies vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Grizz Subdued in Cleveland

The Memphis Grizzlies are still second in the Western Conference, but they’re in a challenging part of their season at the moment. They lost last night to the Portland Trail Blazers — their sixth loss in seven games — and now have to fly to Ohio to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on the second night of a back-to-back. The Cavaliers are another young team hungry to prove they belong among the inner circle of contenders, and knocking off the Grizzlies, no matter the rest imbalance, would be one way to prove just that.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers for Thursday, February 2 believe that the combination of dead legs, defensive excellence, and Memphis’ recent offensive struggles will lead to a low-scoring affair.

Grizzlies vs Cavaliers best odds

Grizzlies vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Thursday night’s game has all the makings of a good old-fashioned rock fight. Not that these teams don’t have offensive talent, it’s just no secret that it's their defenses that win them games. The Grizzlies and Cavaliers are first and third in the NBA in D-rating respectively, but that only tells a small part of the tale of why they’re so hard to beat.

The Grizzlies allow the second-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage of any team, and while in part that's because they do a good job limiting easy shots like corner 3s, a lot of it is that they turn good shots into bad ones. For example, they allow an above-average amount of shots at the rim, and way above average for a good defense, but the threat of Jaren Jackson Jr. turns those looks into much worse propositions in reality.

Cleveland is a really balanced defense. They’re not spectacular at any one thing, but they’re good to great at almost every aspect. And their two-headed monster of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley should prove a difficult matchup for a Memphis team that likes to get its scoring going from the inside out. 

These teams are good at making the way the other one likes to play offense less effective, which is a big part of why I’m backing the Under. The other big piece is how much the Grizzlies' offense has gone to pieces without Steven Adams.

One might assume that the Grizzlies miss the 7-foot-tall Kiwi for his defensive prowess. This a natural assumption if one doesn’t follow Memphis closely, as Adams is not much of a scorer himself and he’s an excellent rebounder. But no, one of the keys to the Grizzlies' offensive struggles is that Adams is the secret sauce that makes their system work. While Memphis is less than a point better on defense when Adams plays, they’re 8.6 points better on offense per Cleaning the Glass.

He and Ja Morant have developed one of the deadliest pick-and-roll partnerships in the game, with Adams leveling bone-rattling screens to perfection to free up Ja’s forays to the rim. He just literally takes up so much space, even schemes designed to stay in contact with Morant end up conceding him a runway to the hoop.

On top of that, he’s the league's best offensive rebounder, posting an absurd 17.5% offensive rebounding rate. That’s critical as Memphis is not an efficient shooting team, they’re Bottom 5 in efficiency at the rim and in the Bottom 10 from long mid-range and 3-point range per Cleaning the Glass. Adams cleans a lot of that up and turns them into tidy new scoring opportunities, something he won’t be there to do against Cleveland. 

With Memphis already on dead legs having played and traveled just last night, I don’t think they’ll get much scoring going against Cleveland. The Cavs themselves have run into some offensive difficulties themselves lately, which is why I like the Under as my best bet one board.

My best bet: Under 224 (-110 at Unibet)

Grizzlies vs Cavaliers spread analysis

In addition to losing six of seven over the last two weeks, the Grizzlies have also performed worse against the spread than any team in the NBA in that span. On average they’re undershooting their lines by 10.1 points per game per Cleaning the Glass, an almost impossibly poor number for a team as good as Memphis.

While Adams’ absence is surely part of that, the Grizzlies have also collectively just forgotten how to shoot. Over the last two weeks, they’re shooting below 30% from three as a team. That’s seen them go 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, as well as 1-4 in their last five on the road.

The Cavs haven’t been any great shakes against the spread themselves, but they do have some strong trends in their favor. For one thing, they’ve tended to bounce back following an ATS loss, which has seen them go 6-0 in the last six times they’ve faced that situation this season. 

They’re also dynamite in their own barn, with a 19-9-1 ATS record in their last 29 home games. The Cavs have just looked a little disjointed to my eyes, which is the only reason Cleveland -4.5 isn’t my best bet.

Grizzlies vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

Even with sportsbooks setting low-scoring expectations for Memphis and Cleveland, they’ve both consistently undershot their Totals recently. Part of this recent Memphis slide has overlapped with a long string of Unders, which have cashed in seven straight Grizzlies games. 

Their scoring trends have been particularly toward the lower side on the road, which makes sense given how fickle their shooting has been recently. Unders are 5-0 in their last five road games, but a longer view has seen the Under go 20-6 in their last 26 away from FedEx Forum.

The Cavs have been on a similar track, with five Unders in their last six games played. And while Memphis plays at the highest pace in the NBA, Cleveland balances them out by playing the slowest at just 96.8 possessions per game. Given that Memphis is likely to be gassed for this one, I like Cleveland’s chances to dictate the pace of play.

Grizzlies vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Under is 7-0 in Grizzlies’ last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers.

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