Two of the NBA's best teams against the spread face off Tuesday night when the Memphis Grizzlies visit the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Grizz are streaking, having won five in a row through some serious health protocol losses.
Speaking of which, the Cavs are likely to get one of their best players back from pandemic purgatory as they look to fend off the Sixers in the East standings.
Something's going to have to give — find out which team has the betting edge with our NBA betting picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs Cavaliers on January 4.
Grizzlies vs Cavaliers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Cleveland opened as a -2.5 favorite at most books, with the current -3 being held by most outlets. The 217.5 total has been static since opening.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Grizzlies vs Cavaliers predictions
Predictions made on 01/04/2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Grizzlies vs Cavaliers game info
• Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSOH, BSSE-MEM
Grizzlies vs Cavaliers betting preview
Injuries
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SG (Out), De'Anthony Melton SG (Out), John Konchar SG (Out), Xavier Tillman C (Out), Kyle Anderson SF (Out), Ziaire Willaims SG (Out).
Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio PG (Out), Collin Sexton PG (Out), Rajon Rondo PG (Out), Isaac Okoro SF (Out), Cedi Osman SF (Out), Dylan Windler (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cavaliers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers.
Grizzlies vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
There are things to like about both sides here.
The Grizzlies are one of the NBA's best young teams and a very ambitious unit that seems to regularly be testing its ceiling. The Cavs are one of the season's most pleasant surprises, and consistently seem to defy the books' expectations, at 25-10-2 ATS.
Memphis is no spread slouch itself at 23-15 ATS, and normally, we'd trumpet that the Grizzlies are exactly the kind of deep, young team whose fresh legs could weather a couple of absences and a back-to-back on the road. However, the Grizz are thoroughly depleted right now. Their rotation is fairly fluid, but as many as six regulars are sidelined.
What remains to be seen is just how hot what's left of their roster can get, after walloping the Nets last night in a 118-104 result that wasn't as close as the final score suggests.
The key to this matchup — beyond Memphis' depth issues — is the Cavs' ability to wall off the rim from Ja Morant. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are very arguably the NBA's best defensive duo of big men (they're both among the Defensive Player of the Year odds leaders) and will make life difficult for a PG whose entire offensive ethos revolves around getting into the paint and breaking down defenses from within.
The Cavs will also be getting Darius Garland back from health and safety protocols, which is massive because:
a) Garland has been Cleveland's second-best player this season and deserves fringe All-Star consideration.
b) Otherwise, the Cavs don't have any healthy point guards on their roster.
Garland will steady Cleveland's attack and provide much-needed perimeter scoring. And while Morant's arguably the hottest player in the NBA right now, but he's due for a regression from long range, and Cleveland's exactly the type of team that can ground him defensively.
Memphis' starters got little rest benefit in last night's blowout, and it's unreasonable to expect Jaren Jackson Jr to break out of his shooting slump against Mobley, who's flat-out the best rookie defender the NBA's seen in recent memory.
Overall, the Grizzlies are just too thin right now, and can't rely on the depth that would normally save them in a spot like this. Meanwhile, the Cavs can even count on x-factor contributions from Kevin Love, who seems to finally give a shit about basketball again and has scored 20+ in five straight games.
Prediction: Cleveland -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Memphis' success amid all its absences can be attributed in part to a major shift in effort on the defensive end. Bettors who remember the leaky Grizzlies that owned the NBA's worst defensive rating a month into the season will be shocked to learn that they're fourth in the same metric over the past ten games.
Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks third on the season in defensive rating, and at 15-22 O/U on the year, has been one of the NBA's five best Under bets.
Neither of these teams are speed demons (Memphis sits in a tie that straddles the league's Top 10, Cleveland's in the same scenario in the Bottom 10) and the Cavs' ability to keep Morant from waltzing to the rim will force Memphis to burn more time finding a good look.
Overall, the Cavs seem more inclined to be able to dictate tempo, especially against a team riddled with absences playing its second game in as many nights. A defensive grind and poor matchup will prevent Memphis from running the score up too much. Back the Under.
Prediction: Under 217.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Grizzlies may take a minute to get their bearings in this one. After all, they played in a different city last night, a game in which Ja Morant and Desmond Bane (who are definitely their two best players right now) played a combined 72 minutes.
Memphis is usually a strong first-half ATS team, but the Cavs are the NBA's very best unit against first-half spreads at 27-10. Not coincidentally, they own the league's top first-half margin at +5.1.
The Grizzlies could be ripe for a letdown, especially against a grind-out defensive team like the Cavs that won't let them get to the hoop at will. Tired legs and a shallow bench won't help matters much, and unless the Grizzlies can dominate the no-Garland minutes where the Cavs don't have a lead playmaker, they should be trailing by a bucket or more at the half.
Pick: Cleveland 1H -1.5 (-105)
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