Grizzlies vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Love Uses Three Ball to Do Damage for Miami

The Miami Heat should come out firing in a must-win spot on Wednesday.

The Memphis Grizzlies have leveled themselves after losing Ja Morant, taking three straight wins into Wednesday night’s tilt against Miami. They have now overtaken the Kings for second place in the West and will be defending that seed until further notice.

The Heatles are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament here, but now with 2.5 games separating them from the Nets in sixth, it’s becoming increasingly likely that they will have to earn their way into the playoffs.

Let’s break down how this one should go in our Grizzlies vs. Heat NBA picks and predictions.

Grizzlies vs Heat best odds

Grizzlies vs Heat picks and predictions

The Kevin Love experiment is still going strong in Miami. Since arriving, he’s played 21.5 minutes on average and is taking 4.4 threes per game.

Now, while he’s only shooting 25% from deep, things are beginning to look up. The grizzled veteran popped a couple of threes in five attempts in a win over Utah a couple of nights ago, and I’m going to bet on him to do the same here.

The Grizzlies may have the most efficient defense in basketball, but what they don’t have is a great 3-point defense. They’ve allowed 36.2% shooting from deep — which ranks fourth-worst in the NBA — and have allowed 2.1 threes per game to opposing power forwards which ranks second-to-last.

I think Love is in a very good spot here, and if he continues shooting threes at the rate he’s been shooting them then he should have success.

My best bet: Kevin Love Over 1.5 threes made (+135 at DraftKings)

Grizzlies vs Heat spread analysis

While the Grizzlies have been rolling with three straight wins, they’re just 2-1 against the spread in that span. On top of that, we need to have a discussion about these wins. They were able to beat the Mavericks — an incredibly flawed team — twice, and they beat a Warriors team which shot just 33.3% from three.

I don’t want to totally discredit their winning streak, but they’ve certainly been helped out by their opponents in recent games.

As for the Heat, they were able to come through a tough four-game stretch against Atlanta and Cleveland with a winning record before splitting a pair against mediocre competition. Now, they will host a Memphis team who is just 13-21 straight up on the road and 12-21-1 ATS. As a road underdog, it's an even-worse 2-9 ATS.

Miami has been incredible at home, on the other hand, and its defense has held up against far better offenses. I like the Heat to cover here.

Grizzlies vs Heat Over/Under analysis

Memphis has been an Under machine of late. Dating back to January 20, the Under is 17-6 in its last 23 games. Miami, on the other hand, has seen the Over cash in five of its last seven.

So, where does this leave us? Well, let’s first point out that even with such a spectacular defense, we have been seeing some very high totals in Grizzlies games over the last few weeks. The same can’t be said for the Heat.

A total of 220 seems to be right in the middle. If I’m going to side anywhere, though, it’s going to be with the Over.

The Heat love to shoot threes — almost more than anyone in the NBA — and the Grizz have allowed 36.2% shooting from deep. On top of that, Memphis is 12th in pace over the last 10 games, keeping up with the fast style of play that Ja Morant had brought to this team.

In a pace-up spot for Miami, who should cash in plenty from deep in front of its home fans, I think this one goes Over the total.

Grizzlies vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is just 33-37 in all of Miami’s games this season, but 17-15 when it is a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Heat.

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