Grizzlies vs Kings Picks and Predictions: Monster Total Too Hard to Reach

The Memphis Grizzlies continue what could be called an eventful West Coast road trip when they visit the Sacramento Kings on Monday night.

The Grizzlies saw their 11-game winning streak snapped by the Los Angeles Lakers in a one-point loss that featured a crazy last-minute comeback and halftime kerfuffle involving Stephen Adams, Ja Morant’s dad, and Shannon Sharpe.

Memphis followed that up with a loss on Sunday to the Phoenix Suns. Can it bounce back in the second half of a back-to-back against a high-octane Sac Town offense?

I break down this Western Conference showdown and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Grizzlies vs. Kings.

Grizzlies vs Kings best odds

Grizzlies vs Kings picks and predictions

Let’s just go ahead and say it. Tonight’s total of 246.5 is massive and too high for this matchup.

For starters, these Western Conference foes have already played three times this season. The totals for those games closed at 239, 237, and 237.

Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, and De’Aaron Fox played in all three of those games. So, even though the Grizzlies are playing their third game in four nights I’m not sure the adjustment of an entire touchdown on the total is warranted.

Oh. And while the first matchup back on Oct. 27 snuck Under the total by two points, the following two games were no-sweats for Under bettors, staying below the number by 15 and 13 points respectively.

Now, I can understand the thinking of a big number here. The Kings see a lot of big totals. They play at a high pace (seventh in the NBA) and their defense still has holes. Memphis plays at a high pace as well (fifth in the NBA), but also plays very good defense. In fact, it ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating, and in opponent field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the offense is interesting. The Grizz are absolutely outstanding in transition but the half-court offense leaves something to be desired, and the team could use more pure shooters as theys rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage.

That plays into the Kings' hands a bit. They aren’t careless with the basketball — ranking 10th in turnover rate — and allows the second-fewest fast-break points per game.

Once again, maybe I’m missing something here. But I’m not understanding why the adjustment is as large as it is. I’ll be on the Under in this one.

My best bet: Under 246.5 (-110 at bet365)

Grizzlies vs Kings spread analysis

The spread for this one is also interesting. It opened with the Grizzlies as 1.5-point road favorites and has bounced around that number a bit, but Memphis is still -1.5 as of Monday afternoon.

The Grizzlies were 2.5-point road favorites in an Oct. 27 meeting, 2.5-point home favorites on Nov. 22, and laid four points at home on New Year’s Day. They won the previous meeting in Sacramento and the teams split the two games in Memphis. 

A few things are affecting this line. The Grizzlies are in a mini-slump, playing the second half of a back-to-back, and are on the road. 

They are a ridiculous 20-3 at home with an NBA-leading 11.2 average point differential in those games, but they're a little more tame on the road — sporting an 11-12 record with a -0.2 point differential.

Memphis will have a chance to feast on the inside in this matchup. The Kings rank 28th in the NBA when it comes to opponent points in the paint, and whether it’s Morant or Jaren Jackson Jr., a lot of the Grizzlies do their best work down low.

That said, the potential fatigue and the home/road splits are enough to keep me away from the spread in this game which books are saying is close to a toss-up.

Grizzlies vs Kings Over/Under analysis

As I said, this total is massive. One of the biggest of the NBA season. It hit the board at 245.5 and was actually bet up to 246.5. I might sound like a broken record but the sole fact the Grizzlies are playing their second game in as many nights warrants an adjustment this large to the total. 

Grizzlies vs Kings betting trend to know

The Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies' last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and is 5-2 in the Kings' last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Kings.

Grizzlies vs Kings game info

Grizzlies vs Kings key injuries

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