Grizzlies vs Knicks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Hart Beats up on Battered Grizzlies

We’re at that stretch of the season before the All-Star break where it seems every NBA team is being wracked with injuries. The two teams squaring off on Tuesday, February 6, in the Memphis Grizzlies and the New York Knicks are chief among them.

A whopping 13 of the Grizzlies’ 15 regularly rostered players were out due to injury in their last game. The Knicks aren’t anywhere close to that, but they did finally run out of steam with four of their Top 6 players out in a loss against the Los Angeles Lakers when last seen.

The Knicks are greater than double-digit favorites for Tuesday’s contest, per the NBA odds. I’m looking elsewhere for value, however. My NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Knicks believe Josh Hart should continue his dominant stretch on the glass.

Grizzlies vs Knicks odds

Grizzlies vs Knicks predictions

While nobody who works for the Memphis Grizzlies will shed a tear on their behalf, the New York Knicks are taking some serious injury attrition. Their nine-game winning streak came to an end against the Los Angeles Lakers largely because L.A. was able to blitz Jalen Brunson without consequence over and over in the fourth quarter, as New York’s remaining healthy players couldn’t make them pay.

One of the primary culprits was Josh Hart, who earned fan ire for his inability to capitalize on open shots or driving lanes. But Hart coming up short in that spot isn’t a reflection on Hart as a player, this is merely an overstretched role for him. 

Hart’s job isn’t to be an on-ball creator, nor even an off-ball shooter. He’s the Knicks energy guy and that isn’t a dig. The Knicks are a team that wins by energy more than any other skill, and Hart embodies that style of play as much or more than any other player on the team.

The Knicks had the second-best offense in the NBA last season despite having a Bottom-10 effective field goal percentage. They managed that improbable feat because they have a team of players who don’t just get 50/50 balls, as Erik Spoelstra noted during the playoffs, they get 30/70 balls.

Hart is one of the Knicks' primary weapons in that regard. Hart’s job is to beat opponents up on the glass and win the Knicks the possession game, and he does both with aplomb. 

Hart’s defensive rebounding percentage is 19.5%. Per Cleaning the Glass, that puts him in the 97th percentile among all forwards. Hart is just 6-foot-5, but he rebounds better than many full-time centers.

The Grizzlies were once like the Knicks, a team built to win the possession game. The injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke flipped that equation for them, however. They’re now Bottom-10 on the glass on both ends.

Given that OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Quentin Grimes have all been ruled out for this game, Josh Hart is likely to play 38-40 minutes to fill the gaps. That makes these Josh Hart odds strong value. 

Hart has been outrageously productive in his minutes since Randle and OG began missing time. He’s averaging a preposterous 10.8 rebounds over his last five games and had nine or more in all five. 

I’m banking on more of the same on Tuesday.

My best bet: Josh Hart Over 8.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)

Grizzlies vs Knicks same-game parlay

Josh Hart Over 8.5 rebounds

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 rebounds

Knicks team total Over 112.5

+400 at DraftKings

Losing Mitchell Robinson at first looked like a death blow for the Knicks. They’re a team that relies on offensive rebounding to juice an otherwise middling offense to elite levels, and Robinson has developed into the NBA’s best on the offensive glass.

Incredibly, Isaiah Hartenstein stepped into Robinson’s role without skipping a beat. He’s in the 91st percentile among bigs as an offensive rebounding per Cleaning the Glass, and as a starter, he’s been elite on the defensive boards as well.

Hartenstein is averaging 11.2 boards over his last five games and his role continues to grow now that Randle and OG are out as well. Just like Hart, I expect him to feast against an undersized and undermanned Grizzlies team.

For the final leg of my same-game parlay, I like the Knicks to score at least 113 points.

The spread here isn’t too appealing because there’s so much uncertainty when a team rolls out a roster full of guys who have little NBA experience. But what is reliable is the way the Knicks generate points by relying on Brunson to create advantages, forcing turnovers, and eating on the offensive glass. 

The Lakers blitzed Brunson relentlessly, daring someone else to make something happen with the ball. They couldn’t. While Jalen finished with 36 points and 10 assists, the offense stalled out completely in the fourth.

But doubling Brunson isn’t as easy as saying it and making it happen. He’ll aggressively split double teams and the Grizzlies don’t have a rim deterrent anywhere near as effective as Anthony Davis. The Knicks should have enough to hit this number just by manufacturing second-chance points and transition buckets.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grizzlies vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Knicks are listed anywhere from 12.5 to 14-point favorites depending on the sportsbook. 

That seems like a huge line given how many of the Knicks guys are out, but again, the Grizzlies are not fielding a real team. With Jaren Jackson Jr. finally succumbing to injury himself against the Boston Celtics, the Grizzlies got blown off the court to the tune of 40 points when last seen. JJJ is officially doubtful for Tuesday night.

With all three of OG, Grimes, and Randle still out, the Knicks’ offense can be short-circuited by a patient and disciplined defense. The Grizzlies will have a strong game plan to do so, but I don’t think they have the personnel to execute it without JJJ in the middle.

The Knicks have been the NBA’s best against the spread team over the past two weeks, beating the spread by an average of 9.9 points per game per Cleaning the Glass. They’re also 15-8-1 ATS at home. 

But some of that was with a healthier team, and my hesitation on laying the spread is the sheer number of minutes the core guys have been playing.

The total for Grizzlies vs. Knicks opened as low as 214.5, though some oddsmakers opened the line as high as 217.5. The Knicks have been one of the NBA’s premier defenses even in OG’s absence because of the tandem of Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa. They’re terrorizing opponents in the paint and beating them to every rebound. 

The Grizzlies have had the NBA’s worst offense this season, by a lot. Their 108.5 offensive rating is 1.2 points per 100 possessions lower than the Portland Trail Blazers. 

And yet their offensive rating over the past two weeks is substantially worse at 104.7 per 100. As the injuries mount, they’re reaching new lows. 

I’m again hesitant to play the Under, however, because with so few NBA mainstays on the roster I can’t evaluate how they match up against the Knicks in any meaningful sense.

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Grizzlies vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Knicks are 15-8-1 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Knicks.

Grizzlies vs Knicks game info

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