Grizzlies vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Jones Lives Up to His Reputation

The NBA season is long. So long that some stretches — for every team in every season — are simply about survival.

Two teams in survival mode are playing tonight in the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks, and what’s more, it’s the second time they’ll have played in just three days. In the first matchup, all three of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Ja Morant were absent, and only Irving might make a return on Monday.

It took the heroics of Memphis rookie “Big Body” David Roddy to rescue what was otherwise a near-catastrophic loss by the Grizzlies. In the end, they triumphed over the Mavericks down both Kyrie and Luka but the win left them facing no fewer questions concerning how they'll tread water without Morant. 

With both teams in a fierce fight for playoff positioning, Grizzlies vs. Mavericks has the makings of a quality game despite the missing names. Our NBA picks and predictions believe Tyus Jones will once again make an outsized impact as the starting guard for Memphis.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks best odds

Grizzlies vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Just a few weeks ago it appeared that the Memphis Grizzlies were on a fast track to the top of the Western Conference, and perhaps even a Finals appearance if everything broke right.

Things broke alright, but instead of creating a window of opportunity for one of the NBA’s rising young squads, they might have instead shut the door on a once-promising season. On top of losing Brandon Clarke for the season and Steven Adam’s return suddenly not a given, they’re of course making their way without their All-NBA lead guard Ja Morant.

While the Grizzlies managed a sterling 20-5 record without Morant last season, they’ve stumbled to just a 6-7 mark this time around. And they’d be in much worse shape if not for the play of Tyus Jones.

Jones has held the unofficial title of the NBA's best backup point guard for a few seasons running now, owing to his penchant for efficient scoring, effective playmaking, and great ball control that puts him in company with the NBA’s elite. He’s regularly in the 90th percentile for his position in terms of turnover percentage, assist percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio — and he’s again at that mark or above this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

However, the mark of a truly great backup is the ability to step up to the plate and deliver when your number is called, and Jones has done just that. In 13 games as a starter this season, including the most recent four straight while Morant remains away from the team, Jones is averaging 18.7 points on 50.8% from the field and 45.3% from deep. He’s also up to 8.1 assists per game as a starter, and he’s been a spot better than that over these last four games.

If Jones has any weakness, it’s his size. Opposing teams with length can force him off the ball and generally limit his passing angles. That’s not a concern with this version of the Dallas Mavericks, who are diminutive on the wing and put very little pressure on the ball. 

Monday’s game will be Jones’ fifth straight start and there are plenty of player props on the board worth considering with Tyus in mind. While his scoring and assist props are both appealing on their own terms, the best value lies instead in Jones notching a double-double at +220. That would be Jones’ fourth double-double in five games, including the one he had against these very same Mavericks on Saturday. 

Jones is a starting caliber point guard, and he’s proven it over and over again when opportunity knocks. I’m expecting another big game from the little guard from Duke.

My best bet: Tyus Jones to record a double-double (+220)

Grizzlies vs Mavericks spread analysis

These two teams are not in good shape. While the Grizzlies have rattled off two wins in a row, they’re on increasingly shaky ground. They’d already been missing the offensive rebounding prowess of Steven Adams before they lost Brandon Clarke for the rest of the year.

Without winning the possession game, the Grizzlies' offense suddenly looks quite beatable. And with Morant’s return uncertain and unknowable, they don’t have that one star player that can shut out an opposing team with a personal 12-0 run. 

They’re also miserable on the road and have gone just 2-9 against the spread over their last 12 road games. They haven’t found a consistent formula for success either. No team can replace a player of Ja’s caliber, a guy who has a 38.5% usage rate, and not fundamentally change as a team. 

And yet their problems might look cute next to the Mavericks. Dallas took a big risk to bring Kyrie Irving into the fold, but they’re yet to reap the benefits of their gamble. The Mavericks are just 5-6 since the Irving addition (and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall), and now face the prospect of an extended stretch without Luka as well.

Kyrie’s status for Monday’s game is questionable, which is why I'd hesitate to play this line or the total. For all his faults, Kyrie makes this Dallas offense capable of beating Memphis in its current state. 

Grizzlies vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

With NBA offenses hitting never before seen highs, a previously monstrous 221.5-point total seems downright quaint these days. It’s a credit to the Grizzlies first and foremost, who, despite everything, have the NBA’s second-best defense, per Cleaning the Glass.

That number has slipped some since Ja’s absence, which is possibly noise, or perhaps that the Grizzlies' offensive struggles are beginning to impact their defensive effort. Still, they’re mostly getting the job done on that side of the court and taken with their now questionable offensive alignment, they’ve been racking up a string of Unders.

Memphis has seen the Under cash in four of their last five road games... it's also 16-5-1 in their last 22 games overall. The Mavericks, meanwhile, seem to be in a shootout right until the buzzer in every game they play because they have lots of shooting and offensive creation and almost zero interest in playing defense. Luka’s absence naturally hurts the chances of the Mavericks pushing to the Over, but they’re still going to bleed points on the other end. 

Also, Luka is a methodical player while Kyrie is more inclined to push the ball and get into early offense. Dallas is dead last in pace on the season and if it does end up that Irving is available and running the show in Luka’s absence on Monday, that uptick in pace also points toward the Over. Without clarity on Irving’s status though this is a stay-away for me.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the Grizzlies' last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.

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