The nightmare continues for the Dallas Mavericks amid one of the most devastating months in NBA history, and a shorthanded roster limps into tonight’s matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.
While Memphis has concerns of its own after dropping four games in a row, that’s nothing compared to the mess in Dallas, and my Grizzlies vs. Mavericks predictions expect the visitors to smell blood in the water here.
My NBA picks weigh up this March 7 battle, with a focus on the Memphis offense.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Memphis Grizzlies are rejigging their rotation on the fly with Jaren Jackson Jr. sidelined and Santi Aldama listed as questionable, but they won’t get much sympathy tonight from a Dallas Mavericks team that’s staring at a miserable stretch run without Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Dereck Lively II among others.
With JJJ set to miss his second straight game, it’s going to be all about the Memphis backcourt here. That pulls Desmond Bane into a clearer No.2 scoring role, and I see him thriving against this undermanned Mavs defense.
After Jackson Jr. limped off against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, Bane poured in 35 points on 9-for-19 shooting and knocked down 14 free throws. The swarming Oklahoma City Thunder perimeter stoppers gave him a tougher night in midweek, but I expect Bane to be in attack mode tonight, and I like the Over on his points prop.
He’s cooled off from 3-point range after making 44% of his triples in January, but he’s gone past this 21.5 O/U number in three of his last four games, and the shot volume will be there as Dallas focuses on slowing down Ja Morant.
Dallas had no answer to Damian Lillard last time out, and Bane’s mix of shot-making and drives should be a constant headache for the hosts, who have a glaring lack of size in the paint to deter the Grizzlies’ guards.
With the Mavs still reeling from a traumatic month, the stage is set for Bane to add to their woes.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points
Memphis Grizzlies Team Total Over 121.5 points
Naji Marshall Over 6.5 rebounds
While I’m hesitant to pick the Game Total Over here, given Dallas’ lack of firepower, I’m jumping on this adjusted Memphis Team Total Over.
The Grizzlies are averaging 123 ppg this season, a hair behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No.1 spot, and they’ve hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 77 outings.
It’s hard to ignore the lack of rim protection for the hosts without Davis, Lively II, and Daniel Gafford, and that spells trouble against this up-tempo Memphis team.
The Mavs have allowed 122 points or more in each of their past three contests, including 137 points against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday.
All the Dallas absences have thrust role players into bigger spots, including Naji Marshall, who moved into the starting line-up in midweek and served up 22 points and 11 boards.
So I’m rounding out my SGP with the Over on Marshall’s rebounds tonight. He’s finished with eight or more boards in five of his last nine games, and now his workload is climbing past the 30-minute mark.
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Grizzlies vs Mavericks odds
Grizzlies vs Mavericks live odds
Grizzlies vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -10.5 (-105) | Dallas +10.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Memphis (-500) | Dallas (+375)
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 (-115) | Under 237.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks are understandably big home underdogs here, having lost five of their last six games, and most of their first-choice starting five are on the injury report.
- But I’m a little wary of laying a double-digit spread with a Memphis team that’s 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 outings and 3-7 overall in that span
- The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, but the Over is 4-2 in the Grizzlies’ last six contests.
- The visitors have cashed in the 2Q Over in 19 of their past 26 road games.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks trend
The Over is 40-24 in the Grizzlies’ last 64 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network SE-Memphis, KFAA |
Grizzlies vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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