The Denver Nuggets are in survival mode down the home stretch of the schedule after suffering another loss to their backcourt and are slim NBA betting favorites hosting the pesky Memphis Grizzlies on Monday.
The Nuggets, who already lost star guard Jamal Murray for the season and are playing without top backup Monte Morris, will be without two-way guard Will Barton for their upcoming slate. Denver was able to get past a horrible Houston team Saturday but have had issues versus Memphis, which is playing its best basketball in April.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets on April 26.
Grizzlies vs Nuggets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDenver bounced between -4.5 and -5 several times from Sunday night until this morning at DraftKings, then dipped to -3.5 before moving to -4 midmorning and staying there all day. It's two-way action, with 60 percent of bets on the Grizzlies and 53 percent of money on the Nuggets. The total toggled between 228.5 and 228 numerous times and is now 228.5, with 79 percent of bets/78 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGrizzlies vs Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Grizzlies: None to report.
Nuggets: Jamal Murray G (Out), Will Barton G (Out), Monte Morris G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing without rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
These teams met a week ago in a 139-137 overtime win for Denver, in which the Nuggets failed to cover as 7.5-point home chalk. That close call kicked off a four-game ATS losing skid for Denver, which has only covered twice in its last nine games.
Memphis, on the other hand, has been an ATS pinata this spring, spewing profits to the tune of a 17-4 ATS count since March 20. The Grizzlies are 13-8 SU with an average margin of +4.1 points in that stretch, despite 14 of those contests coming on the road—including Sunday’s 120-113 win as 3.5-point underdogs at Portland.
The frontcourt tandem of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas is proving to be a handful, with Jackson posting 15 and 23 points in his first two games of 2020-21 since returning from a knee injury and Valanciunas averaging 20.6 points in April and recently coming back from a concussion.
But the real edge for Memphis in this matchup with Denver is second-year guard Ja Morant, who won’t have to deal with Barton on defense and can exploit a paper-thin Nuggets backcourt. Morant scored 36 points in his last game versus Denver, shooting 13 for 24 from the field and getting to the foul line 11 times (knocking down eight FTs).
Memphis has made sweet music for bettors versus Denver in the past, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. The Grizzlies may have lost both games versus the Nuggets this season but those were decided by a combined three points.
PREDICTION: Memphis +4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Part of the Grizzlies’ success this spring has been an eruption on offense. Memphis is averaging 121.8 points on 49.3 percent shooting this month and boasts plenty of scoring depth — even more so with Jackson back — with eight players averaging double figures.
Denver’s offensive attack has taken a hit with the loss of three of its top six scorers, leaving the offensive burden to fall on the frontcourt. Nikola Jokic continues to play at an MVP level and small forward Michael Porter Jr. has locked in the past two games with a collective 65 points versus Houston and Golden State.
Memphis isn’t much for defense — most notably on the road where it allows 113.7 points per outing — and has gone Over the number in 20 of its 30 away tilts this season. The Grizzlies are 9-3 Over/Under in their last dozen games overall and are happy to get into a Mile High shootout Monday.
PREDICTION: Over 228 (-110)
Player prop pick
As mentioned, Morant could have free roam in Denver tonight.
The Grizzlies’ explosive point guard has collected scoring totals of 28, 33, 22 and 36 points over his last four games but the most impressive stat is his 41-for-71 shooting during this span—nearly 58 percent. Morant is also getting to the foul line, hitting 27 of 39 from the stripe in those games.
Denver is running out of options to slow down Morant, either tossing pesky 5-foot-10 Facundo Campazzo at him but sacrificing size or offering up the ankles of 6-foot-6 P.J. Dozier to the Crossover Gods. And then there’s Austin Rivers...nope.
In five career games against the Nuggets, Morant averages 19 points and will easily blow past that bar — and his point Over/Under — on Monday night.
PREDICTION: Ja Morant Over 20.5 points (-104)
Grizzlies vs Nuggets betting card
- Memphis +4 (-110)
- Over 228 (-110)
- Ja Morant Over 20.5 points (-104)
Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 11:56 a.m. ET
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