Grizzlies vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Defenses Define Clash At the Top of the West

The Memphis Grizzlies have finally snapped their eight-game road losing streak after securing a win on Wednesday in Houston. They will need to turn that into some road momentum, with their next three games coming on the road against playoff contenders.

That begins on Friday when they travel to face the conference-leading Denver Nuggets. Denver has won six of its last seven, with its lone loss coming at the hands of the Grizzlies last Saturday. Can MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic get one back on Memphis or will Ja Morant and the Grizzlies keep the wins on the road rolling in?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Grizzlies vs Nuggets on Friday, March 3.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets best odds

Grizzlies vs Nuggets picks and predictions

For the Nuggets, things could arguably not be going better in the regular season. They boast a 44-19 record that tops the Western Conference and back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to secure his third straight MVP. 

Friday night is a good litmus test for how Denver may fare in this year’s playoffs, with an opportunity to get a win back on Memphis after last weekend. 

Denver notably struggled on the defensive end, allowing six of the nine Grizzlies who shot five or more times to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Nuggets haven’t been anything spectacular on defense (14th in defensive rating), but they have been the league’s second-best defensive team in the last month, during which they’ve gone 10-3.

To the Grizzlies’ credit, they’ve also been playing extremely well as of late. After a 1-8 stretch spanning from late January to early February, Memphis has put together a 6-2 record in its last eight. 

During these last eight games, the Grizzlies have been the league’s best defensive team (104.0 defensive rating) and the third-best team according to net rating. This is despite ranking 16th in offensive rating, demonstrating how much higher of a ceiling they possess if they can figure out that side of the ball.

Nevertheless, sometimes the best value isn’t in determining which team will edge the other out but the scoring environment they foster. Given both teams’ recent excellence on the defensive end, it makes sense to take the Under on a total that is still respectably high.

My best bet: Under 234 (-110 at DraftKings)

Grizzlies vs Nuggets spread analysis

The spread opened with the Nuggets at -4.5 and while some -4.5’s are still available, the majority of the market is showing -5 at the time of this writing.

Memphis is 29-30-2 against the spread this season. Given its recent extensive struggles on the road, it should come as no surprise that they are 10-19-1 against the spread on the road, good for the fourth-worst cover rate in that split. As road underdogs in particular, it’s a league-worst 1-8 against the spread (11.1%).

Memphis has covered in three straight after covering just six times in the 20 games prior. The Grizzlies have covered just once this year as underdogs of five or more points and have covered just three times total in the 12 games they have been underdogs.

The Nuggets are 35-27-1 against the spread this year, good for the sixth-best cover rate in the league at 56.5%. At home, they are 21-10-1, good for a league-best 67.7%. As home favorites, they are 19-10-1.

Denver has covered in six of its last seven and in 10 of its last 13. However, as favorites of five or fewer points, it’s 8-14 against the spread.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 235.5 and the market has since moved down to the 233.5-234 range.

The Grizzlies are 33-26-2 to the Under this season, good for the second-highest rate of Unders in the league at 55.9%. On the road, they have favored the Under even more, having gone 18-12 (60.0%).

Memphis has gone Under in four of the last five, including the combined 206-point output in its game against Denver last week that fell nearly 30 points under the total (235). The Grizz have gone 16-6-1 to the Under in games with a total at or above 233.

Denver is 32-31 to the Over this season, with a 17-15 split to the Under in home games. The Nuggets have gone 24-19 to the Under against Western Conference opponents.

They have gone Over the total in four of the last six and in nine of their last 13. In totals of 233 or higher, they have gone 21-7 to the Under.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets betting trend to know

In games with a total of 233 or more, the Grizzlies and Nuggets have played to a combined 37-13-1 to the Under this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets.

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