Grizzlies vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Morant Breaks Out the Long-Range Scope

After starting the season as one of the NBA’s hottest teams, the Phoenix Suns have just won back-to-back games for the first time in a month. If they mean to make it three in a row, they’ll have quite a fight on their hands as they square off with the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, January 22. The Grizzlies will be rested and hungry to redeem a last-second loss to Los Angeles, just their first loss in a twelve-game stretch.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Suns are banking on Ja Morant punishing Phoenix from the perimeter.

Grizzlies vs Suns best odds

Grizzlies vs Suns picks and predictions

While last season the Memphis Grizzlies managed a 20-5 record without their All-NBA leader Ja Morant, the playoffs revealed what most knew already: that the Grizzlies will go as far as Morant can carry them. His play is central to everything Memphis does on offense, so any perceived weakness is going to be probed and prodded by opposing teams to see if there are any cracks in the foundation.

The recent trend is that some opposing teams are aggressively going under on Morant pick and rolls with Steven Adams, challenging Morant to hit threes. Sometimes it works, like when Morant went just 1-6 from deep in the Grizzlies' loss to the Lakers on Friday. Morant is shooting 31.7% from the perimeter on the season, but don’t let the numbers fool you.

While the overall percentages don’t jump off the page Ja Morant has improved the diversity of his jump shot quite a bit. He used to shoot pretty much a set shot and almost exclusively off the catch, easy enough for a rangy defender like Mikal Bridges to bother on an aggressive closeout. But Morant has started to mix in a deeper bag of 3-point attempts this season, including step-backs and pull-up 3-pointers off the dribble. The difficulty and frequency of his attempts have grown, masking what are significant improvements in his overall shooting ability.

Still, teams are going to dare him to shoot as the best of bad options. Teams including the Phoenix Suns. The key thing is that we’ve just seen exactly how Phoenix will play against Morant. They are going to go under every Adams screen, do their best to close the gap, and dare Morant to hit jumpers.

In their previous game on January 16, Morant hit five of his eight attempts. I’m not banking on him being quite that hot, but Morant knows this is a shot he has to shoot to keep defenses honest. Even when he’s missing as he did against the Lakers, he still managed to fire off six attempts. 

This time, the Suns are on a back-to-back, which means that all of their closeouts are likely going to be just a little slower, giving Morant the edge to cash this prop.

My best bet: Ja Morant Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+102)

Grizzlies vs Suns spread analysis

The Suns have a whopping seven players listed on their injury report for Sunday’s game, including four of their five traditional starters in Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Cam Johnson. Of that group, I would expect Ayton and Johnson to play. Johnson is returning from a meniscus tear and was strategically rested last night, likely so he would be free to play today.

Johnson is the kind of big wing they’ve been lacking almost all season long. He can defend multiple positions, make plays off of drives, and most importantly shoot. The Suns are not a high-volume shooting team, so the few 3-point shooters that do play for them take on an outsized importance. Still, expect Johnson to be on a minutes restriction.

The Grizzlies are coming off a brutal loss to the Lakers. It was a game they should have won and had to commit a series of careless errors throughout the course of the game to even be in a position to lose in the first place. But it’s hard not to become complacent after ripping off 11 straight wins, and no doubt that loss will only have Memphis focused and ready to return to their winning ways tonight.

Despite that, the Grizz have had mixed results against the spread recently. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall. But the Suns are in a tough spot with a decimated rotation and playing on a back-to-back. Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in their last five games played on zero days of rest.

Grizzlies vs Suns Over/Under analysis

Memphis plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, and it’s no secret why. It’s among the best defensive playmaking teams in the NBA, forcing an average amount of turnovers, but sitting second in blocks, as Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to grow his lead in the Defensive Player of the Year odds. Paradoxically, despite their top-tier defense, the Over has cashed in eight of the Grizzlies’ last nine games.

Those defensive stops lead to fast breaks and what can only be described as violent Morant finishes. With The Suns on heavy legs and already down so many bodies, it will take superhuman discipline and revolve to do the required work in transition defense to slow the Grizz down. 

I’m personally not buying it, and I expect Memphis to pour it on the Suns after their meltdown in L.A. Memphis plays with a level of force that makes players like Damion Lee, an important bench shooter for Phoenix, wilt. If this game hits the Over, it will be because the Grizzlies make a point to put down a fellow Western Conference rival in a get-right spot.

Grizzlies vs Suns betting trend to know

Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing on zero days’ rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Suns.

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