The series might be even, but the Warriors not only now have home-court advantage, they also have an angered edge. Championship franchises have a certain mentality in the first place, but give them a reason to be aggrieved and that gets dialed up to 11.
Dillon Brooks’ foul on Gary Payton II in Game 2 should give Golden State that edge. Beating the Grizzlies will no longer be enough for the Warriors.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Grizzlies vs the Warriors on Saturday, May 7.
Grizzlies vs Warriors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites shortly after Game 2 ended, the lines hitting the books a bit after midnight on Wednesday morning. The only movement through the end of the week came with most books bumping that to -7.0 on Friday afternoon.
The total was similarly stagnant, opening at 226.5 and slipping to 225.5 by Friday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Grizzlies vs Warriors predictions
Predictions made on 5/6/2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Grizzlies vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, May 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Grizzlies vs Warriors series odds
Grizzlies: +235
Warriors: -200
Grizzlies vs Warriors betting preview
Key injuries
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SG (Out), Steven Adams C (Questionable).
Warriors: Gary Payton II PG (Out), Andre Iguodala SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Grizzlies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to Golden State. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.
Grizzlies vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Recent Golden State success was lost in the conversation around its 4-1 series win against Denver. Heading into the postseason, the Warriors had gone 5-1 ATS in their last six. That continued with three straight covers to open the playoffs. At that point, the series against the Nuggets was essentially assured and letting off the gas pedal a touch was only human.
Too much focus was then on tearing apart Nikola Joki?’s season, on pondering Denver’s future, on things that could have waited until the offseason. The focus should have been “uh oh, Golden State is back.”
The instinct here was to go look at how the Warriors fared against the spread in the 2019 playoffs with all three of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green healthy. The truth is, Golden State went only 8-11-2 ATS with those three, including 7-8-1 leading into the Finals. Even worse, the Warriors were 3-7 ATS at home in those moments. Including that here does not support the handicap, but it does lend transparency to the thought process.
Then which Golden State is back? The one that opened the 2021-22 season 17-6-1 ATS through Dec. 6, a stretch ending shortly before Green’s most-recent back struggles began. Those Warriors encouraged betters to look into conference and Finals futures, including yours truly. Those Warriors looked like the vintage teams of 2015 and 2016.
Do not let their loss in Game 2 fool you. Those Warriors are back.
Is that an odd thing to say when they went 18.4 percent from deep — 7-for-38 — in Game 2? Perhaps. Is it counterintuitive to praise a team after it gave up 18 turnovers? Sure.
But Golden State still lost by only five in a raucous road environment. It led with two minutes to go before simply missing too many shots.
You really want to bet on the Warriors continuing to miss shots? You really want to bet against Curry, Thompson and Green together again? This dynasty was never actually built on threes — the drama of those moments just overshadowed the defensive dominance and overall versatility of the roster. Those factors are back. The 3-pointers will follow.
Prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Let’s repeat that shooting stat: Golden State went 7-of-38 from deep in Game 2. That came after going 14-of-38 in Game 1.
Assume the Game 1 showing is more the norm for the Warriors in this series, if not the norm’s floor. Memphis’ defense on the arc this year was middling, at best, giving up 34.5 attempts per game and a 34.9 three-point percentage. Golden State should do no worse than those averages this series.
Returning to that rate, if not also getting hot, should propel this game Over the total. Consider Game 2’s 106-101 final score. Hitting another seven treys would not have been a high demand, and it would have sent the game well Over the total.
Prediction: Over 225.0 (-108 at WynnBET)
Best bet
The Warriors are angry. Brooks’ hit on Payton had head coach Steve Kerr fuming well through his postgame interviews, and there is little chance the Chase Center crowd will not follow his cue.
If there’s one team and one fanbase that can react angrily, it’s Golden State. The Warriors do not want to beat Memphis — they want to exact psychological revenge.
Combine that motivation with the likelihood Steph and Klay respond to shooting a combined 5-of-23 from deep in Game 2, and this could quickly become a rout. If granting Jordan Poole some nominal Splash Brother status, those three went 6-for-29 from beyond the arc. They averaged 10.9 made 3s per game on 28.6 attempts this season, a combined 38.%.
Five more triples would have turned Game 2 into a comfortable Warriors win, and that would have been the mere average for the Splash Trio. Betting on a revenge- and redemption-soaked performance this weekend should lead to a Golden State victory by a bit more than the spread. Let’s add a pair of those buckets to the current spread and get greedy.
Pick: Warriors -12.5 (+220 at BetMGM)
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