Santa drops off five NBA games for us to unwrap on Christmas Day including a rematch of last season's Western Conference semifinals between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors.
When lookahead lines for the Christmas Day games came out at the beginning of the season the Warriors were 4.5-point favorites but after an unimpressive start to their campaign and with injuries to Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the line has flipped to favor the Griz at -4.5
Here are my best free Grizzlies vs. Warriors NBA picks and predictions for Sunday, December 25.
Grizzlies vs Warriors best odds
Grizzlies vs Warriors picks and predictions
The Warriors entered this season as the defending champs but haven't lived up to expectations, going just 15-18. While they are 12-2 SU (10-4 ATS) at home, it will be tough for them to keep things close without Steph Curry, who leads the team with 30 points per game on 50/43/92 shooting splits.
Since losing Andrew Wiggins to an abductor injury earlier this month, the Dubs are just 2-7 SU (3-6 SU) with six of those seven defeats coming by more than five points. The absence of Wiggins was compounded by the loss of Curry to a shoulder injury last Wednesday and in their last two games without both All-Stars, they lost by 30 points to Brooklyn and 38 points to New York.
Golden State has been among the worst defensive teams in the league all season and ranks just 25th in defensive rating. Without Curry, they won't have the firepower to make up for all the buckets they give up. Especially against a Grizzlies team that is 10-3 SU (9-3-1 ATS) with a league-best net rating of +11.5 over the last month.
My best bet: Grizzlies -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Grizzlies vs Warriors spread analysis
The Grizzlies are fresh off a 125-100 road victory against the Suns on Friday. Desmond Bane returned to the court versus Phoenix after more than a month sidelined by an injury. The high-scoring shooting guard had to shake off the cobwebs at first but got acclimated as the game went on and finished with 17 points.
Memphis is now tied with Denver atop the Western Conference standings with a 20-11 record and has won 10 of its last 13 games. The Grizzlies have been filling up the hoop during that span, averaging 117.8 ppg despite an outlier performance against the Nuggets earlier this week, where they scored just 14 points in the first quarter.
This is an extremely talented offensive team led by Ja Morant (26.5 ppg, 7.9 agp), Bane (24.1 ppg), Dillon Brooks (17.9 ppg), and Jaren Jackson (16.9 ppg). But the Grizzlies have also been terrific on the other end of the floor and rank fifth in the league in defensive rating.
Golden State is coming off back-to-back embarrassing defeats after losing 143-113 to the Nets on Wednesday and falling 132-94 to the Knicks on Tuesday.
The Warriors have been brutal defensively and have also struggled on the boards where they rank 23rd in rebounding rate. They have some talented players on offense but rank a modest 14th in offensive rating and will really miss Curry's efficiency on offense and Wiggins' strong play on both ends of the court.
Keep in mind that Golden State ranks second-last in the league in turnover rate and Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson who are left to carry the offense have been streaky shooters.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
The Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league while the Grizzlies play at the ninth-fastest and love to jump out in transition. That said, we're seeing a relatively high total for this game when you consider the absence of Curry and Wiggins who combine for 49.1 ppg on 50.4 FG%.
The Warriors average 116.5 points per game but those numbers have plummeted without their superstar point guard. In seven games without Curry this season the Dubs are averaging just 107.1 ppg on 46.3% shooting while they average 119 ppg on 48.1% shooting with the two-time MVP in the lineup.
The Grizzlies have a stingy defensive unit anchored by Jackson and rank eighth in the league in scoring defense with 110.9 ppg allowed. They also don't shoot the ball well away from home and are averaging a modest 112.3 ppg on 45.7 FG% on the road.
Grizzlies vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Grizzlies' last six road games versus a team with a winning home record. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.
Grizzlies vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 25, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN, Sportsnet |
