Hawks vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: No Embiid, No Problem for Philly's Defense

The Atlanta Hawks will be looking to break a two-game losing streak when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night.

The Hawks and 76ers have played twice already this season, splitting their first two meetings. Philadelphia center Joel Embiid played a key role in both games, putting up two double-doubles and scoring 42 points in the 76ers win.

Embiid is among several Philadelphia players who could miss Tuesday’s game. We’ll take a closer look at how that should impact our betting tonight in our NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. 76ers below.

Hawks vs 76ers best odds

Hawks vs 76ers picks and predictions

Joel Embiid is once again putting up MVP-level numbers for the 76ers this year. The 28-year-old big man is averaging 32.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, while also dishing out 4.6 assists per night.

As usual, the big question is how much Embiid can stay on the court. He has never played even 70 games in a season and has already missed eight games this year for Philadelphia. 

Embiid’s most recent injury is a mid-foot sprain suffered last Saturday against the Timberwolves. He has missed the last four games since that injury, and while there’s been no definitive injury report for Monday night’s game yet, he is once again listed as questionable.

It’s not as though the 76ers have fallen apart without Embiid in the lineup, however. Philadelphia is 3-1 in the four games they’ve played in his absence, with Tobias Harris stepping up to fill the gap. Harris has scored at least 19 points in each game since Embiid went down, including 25 against the Magic on Sunday.

The 76ers have been especially resilient on defense even without Embiid in the lineup. Over their last four games, they’ve given up an average of just 103.8 points per game, remaining below their league-leading average (106). So while we can’t be sure that Embiid will play tonight, we can expect a strong defensive effort out of Philadelphia either way.

The 76ers also continue to miss James Harden, who is out with a foot injury, while multiple other players are questionable for tonight’s game. Atlanta is dealing with some injury issues itself. The Hawks have played without center Clint Capela for their last two games due to dental pain and he is again listed as questionable for Monday’s contest. 

The uncertainty around all of these injuries leaves me a little uneasy about betting the moneyline or the spread tonight. However, there’s another option that I do love tonight: taking the Under.

Not only is Philadelphia arguably the best defensive team in the NBA, they also match up very well against the Hawks. Atlanta has not shot well all year, particularly from deep, as the Hawks have made just 32.4% of their 3-pointers. Meanwhile, the 76ers are the best team in the league at defending behind the arc, allowing opposing teams to shoot just 31.1% from deep.

While Philadelphia has plenty of offensive weapons, several of them are injured or at least limited at the moment, which should continue to slow down its production. The Hawks aren’t an elite defensive team, but the Sixers are scoring just 109.7 points per night to begin with.

Philadelphia has an efficient offense, but plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. Atlanta isn’t likely to try and speed things up much, either. I’m on the Under at 221 tonight.

My best bet: Under 221 (-107 at PointsBet)

Hawks vs 76ers spread analysis

Philadelphia opened tonight’s game as a 1-point home underdog. As of Monday at noon, Atlanta -1 was still the most common line at books. However, there’s a wide spread across the industry, with some sites offering 76ers -1, while others have Hawks -1.5 as the main line. That means line shopping is critical if you're looking to pick a side.

The biggest problem with doing so is the fact that we have so many key players questionable for tonight’s game. My advice is to wait until an official injury report comes out before making any bets related to the spread. 

In a vacuum, getting Philadelphia with some points does look promising, however. These two teams each won at home in their previous two meetings. The 76ers are also playing well of late, while the Hawks have lost two in a row and four of their last six, with one of the wins coming in overtime at home over the Raptors.

If I had to make a pick tonight, my tentative suggestion is to get the 76ers either on the moneyline or with as many points as you can find on the market. But be careful: if Capela is playing and Embiid is not, this game definitely favors Atlanta instead, and the line could move a few points once the official injury report is released.

Hawks vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on tonight’s matchup has remained steady since opening at 221. That number is pretty consistent across the market, with very little variation between books at the time of writing.

I’ve already outlined why I like the Under above. The 76ers have continued to play elite defense — and play at a slow pace — even without Embiid in the lineup, and that won’t change on Monday night.

The fact that the 76ers have continued to play well on the defensive end even without their star center makes this pick feel a bit more resilient regardless of Embiid’s injury status, which is why I’m happy to jump on it now.

It helps to see that neither team has been lighting up the scoreboards as of late. The Hawks have scored 106 points or less in three of their past four games. The 76ers broke out for 133 against the Magic in yesterday’s blowout win, but have still gone for 110 or less in five of their past seven.

Expect a low-scoring affair on Monday night, with both teams only creeping toward 100 points late in the fourth quarter. Given the recent trends, the injury issues, and the stylistic matchup, I’m confident in recommending the Under tonight.

Hawks vs 76ers betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1 in the past nine meetings between the Hawks and the 76ers. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. 76ers.

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