We’re about to discover how much momentum really matters in sports as the red-hot Hawks travel to Cleveland to take on the reeling Cavs in a winner-take-all play-in game.
Atlanta earned its spot in Friday night’s clash by laying a serious beatdown on Charlotte, eviscerating the Hornets by 29 points in a game that got out of hand midway through the first quarter.
On the other side of the court, the hometown Cavs will get one more chance to make the playoffs after stumbling against the star-studded Nets in a game in which they trailed by as many as 22 points.
Will Cleveland finally find its footing, or will Atlanta punish another opponent in primetime?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Cavaliers.
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Hawks vs Cavaliers odds
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The Hawks opened as -1.5-point favorites on Wednesday night after their thrashing of the Hornets, and that number quickly crept up to -3 by Thursday morning as bettors scrambled to get in on the action. It has since settled at -2 with most books. The total opened at 225.5 but was briefly available as low as 222 at Coolbet.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Hawks vs Cavaliers predictions
Predictions made on 4/14/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hawks vs Cavaliers game info
• Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Friday, April 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Hawks vs Cavaliers betting preview
Key injuries
Hawks: John Collins PF (Out), Lou Williams SG (Out), Chaundree Browns Jr. SG (Out).
Cavaliers: Jarrett Allen (Questionable), Dean Wade PF (Out), Collin Sexton PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Hawks have beaten the Cavs three straight times, winning by an average margin of 11.7 points per game. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Cavaliers.
Hawks vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Hawks hold a 3-1 series advantage over the Cavs this season, and while the first three games were reasonably close, the fourth game on March 31 was no contest.
Playing on the second night of a back-to-back, Atlanta somehow mustered up enough energy to blow out Cleveland 131-107 behind 30 points from Trae Young. The Hawks held the Cavs to just 23.3% shooting from beyond the arc and pressured the team’s ballhandlers into 14 turnovers, leading to 24 points.
It's highly unlikely the margin of victory will be that big again on Friday, but it does point to the widening gulf between these two teams over the past three weeks of the season. While Atlanta won seven of its final 10 games behind Young’s outrageous swagger, Cleveland limped to a lamentable 3-7 record over the same period. That included a head-scratching 120-115 loss to the lowly Magic in which they were pounded in the paint.
Injuries have admittedly been part of the problem as All-Star center Jarrett Allen has been sidelined since March 6 with a fractured finger. The Cavs dropped to 20th in opponent points in the paint during that stretch and saw their defensive rating plummet from fifth to 24th. That’s a testament to Allen’s unique ability to protect the rim with his impressive athleticism and quick reads, and Cleveland will sorely miss him again if he’s unavailable.
The Hawks will be missing a key contributor as well in John Collins, but they had little problem making up for his productivity on Wednesday against the Hornets. Danilo Gallinari contributed 18 points in his second strong start, and De’Andre Hunter went supernova in the third quarter when he scored 18 of his 22 points. Both players should be counted on to make big contributions again versus the Cavs.
Atlanta hammered Cleveland by 24 points in their last meeting and has only gotten better since. Expect the Hawks to roll again on Friday and advance to the playoffs.
Prediction: Hawks -2 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Atlanta and Charlotte went Under the projected point total of 236.5 on Wednesday evening, but that had a whole lot more to do with the Hornets, who coughed up the ball 14 times and hit just 37.8% of their shots from the floor.
LaMelo Ball was particularly ineffective, going 7-for-25 and missing 10 of his game-high 14 3-point attempts. High school coaches around the country were no doubt yanking out their few remaining hairs as shot after shot barely grazed the tin.
The Hawks, on the other hand, could hardly miss, especially during the third quarter when they outscored the Hornets 42-24. Atlanta’s Top 5 offense has now topped 120 points in seven of its last 10 games. That’s an absolutely blistering pace, and there’s no reason to believe it will slow down drastically on Friday against a Cavs squad that gave up 115 points to the Nets and has been surrendering nearly 10 more points per game since Allen’s injury.
Atlanta and Cleveland combined to score 228 points per game in their four previous clashes this year, which is comfortably Over the projected total for their play-in game. That alone should give bettors plenty of confidence heading into Friday night.
Prediction: Over 223 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Unlike the Hawks’ free-flowing game against the Hornets, Friday’s game against Cleveland should be a slightly slower affair as the Cavs rank 25th in pace and favor halfcourt slugfests over full court track meets. That ethos typically results in more trips to the line, which is precisely what’s happened over Cleveland’s last three games, as the team’s personal fouls have jumped from 17.5 to 22.3 per contest.
That would be by far the highest mark in the league over the course of a full season, and it’s an especially troubling trend considering the fact Atlanta ranks third in the league in free throws made at 18.1, and fourth in free throw accuracy at 81.2%.
The chief benefactor has been Young, who averages 7.3 trips to the charity stripe per game, although six other Hawks average two free throws attempts or more per outing. The Cavs won’t be able to slow down – or contain – the Hawks in the open court, which should result in two things: plenty of "take fouls" and an easy win for bettors who ride the Over.
Pick: Hawks Over 17.5 made free throws (-125 at DraftKings)
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