Hawks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Uses Scorching Offense to Cover in Miami

The Atlanta Hawks have a rock-solid defense against guards, which could prove to be the difference here

Atlanta and the Miami Heat are locked in an epic battle for Eastern Conference positioning, and both will collide here on Saturday. Atlanta sits in eighth, just three games out of the final spot before the play-in tournament, and Miami is in seventh — a half-game ahead oftoday's opponent.

These two have given us some great games on two occasions this season, and with everything to play for, they should deliver again.

Let’s break down how this one should go in our Hawks vs. Heat NBA betting picks and predictions.

Hawks vs Heat best odds

Hawks vs Heat picks and predictions

The Heat are deflated, coming off a loss to the Knicks which saw them come back and take a late lead in the final minute. The Hawks, meanwhile, are delighted coming off of a monster win over Portland. While the Blazers are notorious for their poor defense, it was yet another feather in this team’s cap, making it three wins in four games.

If there’s one thing the Heatles don’t like to do, it’s cover at home. They’re just 8-21-2 against the spread in Miami, and 6-20-2 ATS as the home favorite. On back-to-backs they’ve also struggled, covering in just three of nine.

This isn’t a particularly great matchup for the home team, either. Atlanta has really been shooting the ball well from deep of late, sinking 38.7% of its looks over the past 10 games which ranks fifth in the NBA. Miami is just outside the Bottom 5 in the NBA in 3-point defense on guarded looks.

On no rest, it’s going to be a lot for this Heat team to come back out on Saturday and stop a Hawks team that has been lethal on offense of late — particularly from deep.

My best bet: Hawks +2 (-110 at DraftKings)

Hawks vs Heat spread analysis

As I just pointed out above, this is a hard ask for Miami — particularly if the threes begin to fall. It could certainly get out of hand in a hurry with the way Dejounte Murray has been playing as the lead man for a fourth-ranked offensive team in the NBA over the last 10 games. They are scoring a pretty 120.5 points per 100 possessions and are sixth in true shooting percentage.

Perhaps catching wind of this, the sharps seem to be lining up to take Atlanta. While 49% of the tickets are on the road team here, a commanding 69% of the money wagered on the spread for this one at the DraftKings Sportsbook has come in on the Hawks.

It’ll be worth watching this line to see if it moves toward Atlanta, particularly considering half of its wins against the spread have come as the underdog. As the road underdog, the Hawks are 11-10-1, which is a far better look than their 28-34-1 mark ATS in all games.

Hawks vs Heat Over/Under analysis

While the Hawks have been stellar on the offensive end over the last 10 games, they’re allowing an alarming 117.2 points per 100 possessions. That, combined with a lethal ranking of fifth in pace tends to drive their games toward the Over.

The Over is 36-27 in all of Atlanta’s games this season, but it’s particularly fond of putting up points (and allowing them) on the road. The Over has gone 20-12 in the Hawks’ road games this season, and on the other side of the coin, while the Over is just 29-35 in all Heat games, it’s at least 14-14 when they’re the home favorites.

Miami has one of the worst offenses in basketball right now, plays excellent defense, and plays slow basketball. It can’t defend the three, however, and will face a red-hot team that loves to push the tempo.

That’s a lethal combination I don’t want any part of. There can be fair arguments made for both sides of this total, and I don’t expect the line to shift all that much as the public and sharps try to crack this code.

Hawks vs Heat betting trend to know

This is the first time in eight games that the Hawks have been underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.

Hawks vs Heat game info

Hawks vs Heat key injuries

Pages related to this topic