Despite the fact the Phoenix Suns have the fifth-best NBA Championship odds, it’s becoming clearer all the time they may not live up to their potential this season.
At the very least they've been costing their backers a pretty penny. Phoenix has covered just four spreads set by NBA odds over its last 14 games, but will a matchup with this clipped wing version of the Atlanta Hawks be just what tit needs to get back on track?
I break down this matchup and bring you the bets bet, plus a same-game parlay in my free NBA picks for the Hawks vs. Suns on March 21.
Hawks vs Suns odds
Hawks vs Suns predictions
For the most part this season, the Phoenix Suns have been consistently inconsistent. They tend to take care of business against lesser teams while typically struggling against the better ones.
For example, in the Suns’ last nine games they've won against the 76ers, Hornets, Raptors and a Donovan Mitchell-less Cavaliers squad while suffering losses to the Celtics, Bucks, and Thunder.
It’s not like the Suns are bad: They rank ninth in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating, and have the luxury of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. They just aren’t a great team, at least not yet.
You know what isn’t a great team though? The Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks have been one of the worst defensive squads in the Association all season long, ranking 28th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent effective field goal percentage. They're also in injury hell with Trae Young sidelined for about a month now, Saddiq Bey out for the season, and maybe the most disappointing injury is that of breakout star Jalen Johnson.
The Johnson injury is key here for a lot of reasons. Not only was he averaging 16.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, but he also likely would have been guarding Durant for a while tonight.
Durant has been in a bit of a slump lately — averaging just 16.5 points over his last four games — but I believe that slump is giving us some value in this matchup.
Durant’s point total is sitting at 24.5 points, which is interesting because he was seeing totals in the 28.5-30.5 range less than two weeks ago. He was on fire then, putting up games of 35+ points in four straight games, but this is Kevin Durant we are talking about. He can get hot at any moment.
KD is averaging 27.7 points per game this season and is shooting an awesome 52.5% from the floor which includes an impressive 41.7% from 3-point range. Oh, did I mention the Hawks allow the fourth-most made threes per game?
The points total of 24.5 is a number Durant has gone Over in nearly 70% of his games this season. Atlanta in its current state is the perfect opponent for Durant to find his shooting stroke once again. Our NBA player props projections have Durant going for 26 points.
My best bet: Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Hawks vs Suns same-game parlay
Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points
Dejounte Murray Over 3.5 rebounds
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 assists
Dejounte Murray is pretty much the last man standing with all the injuries the Hawks are dealing with. Murray has done his best to carry the team with Young out, averaging 25 points, 8.5 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game in his absence.
The Suns are a solid rebounding team but rank 19th in rebounds per game allowed to opposing guards. Plus, Murray is legitimately Atlanta's second-best rebounder on the roster at the moment.
Grayson Allen has an assist total sitting at 2.5 and averages 3.1 assists per game. He's gone Over this number in three straight games and seven of 10 overall. The Hawks surrender the seventh most assists per game this season.
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Hawks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened this matchup against the Hawks as 10-point home favorites but have been bet down to -9 as of Thursday afternoon.
So, with all the issues Atlanta is dealing with, why are we not running out to lay the points with the Suns?
Well, as I noted earlier, Phoenix has been an awful ATS bet lately, going 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games, and the Suns aren’t that much better than the Hawks overall when it comes to covering the spread if we're being honest. The Suns are 27-40-1 ATS for the season and a paltry 6-7 when laying nine or more points.
Phoenix should be the side here, but the inconsistent way the team has played is keeping me away from the spread.
When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 226 and has seen little action to this point. I believe the Suns have have some offensive success in this matchup but I’m not sure Atlanta will be able to do its part if you're thinking about the Over. I’d prefer to stick with player props in this matchup.
Hawks vs Suns betting trend to know
The Hawks are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games overall while the Suns are 4-10 ATS in their last 10. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Suns.
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Hawks vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AZ Family, BSSE |
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