The best game in the NBA on Wednesday night takes place in Milwaukee as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champion Bucks host Jimmy Butler and the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat.
The Heat come into this game white-hot, having won nine of their last 10 games while the Bucks have been a little more inconsistent, losing four of their last six. That said, Milwaukee is still laying around four points for this Eastern Conference clash. Does that mean Miami has value as an underdog?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Heat vs. Bucks tonight, March 2.
Heat vs Bucks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Bucks opened this Eastern Conference matchup as a 3.5-point favorite and have seen the early money, moving the line to 4.5. The total hit the board at 226.5 and has been bet down as low as 225.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Bucks predictions
- Prediction: Heat +4.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 225.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Tyler Herro Over 2.5 made threes (-110)
Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 2:47 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Sun
Heat vs Bucks betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: Kyle Lowry PG (Out).
Bucks: George Hill PG (Out), Pat Connaughton SF (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games while the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games when facing a team with a winning road record. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.
Heat vs Bucks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Miami Heat have won nine of 10 and are currently the top seed in the Eastern Conference. This is despite the fact there haven’t been too many games this season when all members of the Heat's trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry have all suited up at the same time.
The Milwaukee Bucks, on the other hand, have been a streaky team this season. After what appeared to be a championship hangover-esque start, the Bucks got hot, going on an eight-game winning streak. Since then, they’ve had win streaks of four and five games but they’ve also had multiple instances of them losing three of four and four of five.
Part of the reason for that inconsistency has been that the Bucks have also been dealing with guys coming off and on the injured list all season long.
So, there is little separating these two teams at the moment. The Heat rank fifth in the NBA when it comes to net rating while the Bucks are ninth.
That said, the Heat have an edge in two key areas in this matchup. One is on defense, where they rank sixth in defensive rating compared to the Bucks, who rank 16th. The Heat are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, ranking third in 3-point shooting (37.4%) and are going against a Bucks team that allows the most 3-point attempts in the league.
Even without Lowry, that’s enough for me to take the points with the Heat in what should be a tight matchup.
Prediction: Heat +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the early money has come in on the Under and we’re leaning that way as well.
While the Bucks have put up a ton of points in their first two games coming out of the All-Star break, they aren’t as productive in games that are expected to be tough for them. The Bucks have been a favorite of 4.5 points or less or an underdog 24 times this season, and average a meager 106.8 points per game in those matchups.
The Heat, of course, allow just 104.7 points per game and while Miami’s offense is efficient, it certainly isn’t a high-tempo one. It ranks 28th in the NBA in pace and scores 109.5 points per game.
The Heat will force the Bucks to slow down and play at their speed in a game that could be a bit of a grind at times. Bet on the defenses to show up and back the Under.
Prediction: Under 225.5 (-110)
Best bet
We mentioned that the Bucks give up a ton of threes. So, who better to back in this matchup than Tyler Herro. The Heat shooting guard is the overwhelming betting favorite to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award, putting up 20.2 points per game while shooting 37.8% from deep.
Now, obviously, Herro can be a streaky shooter but the Bucks will give him plenty of opportunities to find his groove. Herro has hit four or more threes in three of his last five games and with Lowry out, he might get a bit more of a run in this one.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 2.5 made threes (-110)
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