The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to complete a first-round sweep as they take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 4 of their Western Conference playoff series on Saturday afternoon.
With Ja Morant out for Saturday’s game, the dynamic should change significantly, which opens up some interesting Thunder vs. Grizzlies props as targets for bettors.
Let’s look at what I see as the best options in my NBA picks for Saturday, April 26.
Best Thunder vs Grizzlies props
Jackson Jr. Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Holmgren Over 25.5 points & rebounds (-120 at bet365)- Dort Under 8.5 points (-105 at bet365)
Thunder vs Grizzlies player props for April 26
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Ja Morant is apparently out for Game 4 after suffering a hip injury during the Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 loss on Thursday night. While that’s a terrible blow for the Grizzlies, who would like to at least get a consolation win in this series, it does open up scoring opportunities for other players on the Memphis roster.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is the player most likely to take advantage of those looks. Jackson was the second leading scorer for the Grizzlies this year, with his 22.2 ppg trailing only Morant (23.2 ppg) during regular season play. Even with Morant in the lineup and healthy for the first two games, it’s notable that he never led Memphis in scoring in this series, with Jackson putting up 26 to lead the team in the Game 2 loss.
Jackson was also the second-leading scorer on the team with 22 points in Game 3, behind only a surprising 28-point outburst by Scottie Pippen Jr. in Thursday’s game. While the Grizzlies will look for as many potential scoring options as possible in Game 4, I have much more faith in Jackson – who has been one of the primary threats all season long – to take on that role than anyone else. I’m taking the Over on Jackson to score 23.5 points today.
Chet Holmgren Over 25.5 points & rebounds (-120 at bet365)
I’m not sure we can make a direct link between the Ja Morant injury and the fact that Chet Holmgren completely took over Game 3 in the second half on Thursday. But we would be wrong to completely ignore that dynamic, as Holmgren scored 23 points in the second half while hitting five 3-pointers.
Holmgren was a major contributor to the Oklahoma City Thunder all year long, averaging 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game on the year. Like many significant weapons, his production has only gone up in the postseason, as he’s averaging 21.0 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in this series against the Grizzlies.
One issue is that Memphis doesn’t really have a sizable player capable of matching up head-to-head with Holmgren. The best option may be rookie Zach Edey. But as impressive as the rookie out of Purdue has been this season, he hasn’t had the ability or experience to truly challenge Holmgren, nor has Memphis trusted Edey to play enough minutes to battle him all game long. That’s unlikely to change in Game 4, which is why I love Holmgren to cover a relatively low total for his combined points and rebounds.
Luguentz Dort Under 8.5 points (-105 at bet365)
While the Thunder have dominated the Grizzlies for most of this series, one player who hasn’t gotten in on the offensive explosion is Lu Dort. To be fair, Dort’s primary contribution to the team has never been as a scorer, as he has been a complimentary piece for the team all season long, averaging just 10.1 ppg.
If anything, Dort has gotten even fewer looks in the postseason, which makes sense given the number of frightening offensive matchups Oklahoma City can deploy against Memphis and other opponents. Dort had his biggest game in Game 1, where he scored 12 points on 4-of-8 shooting, but he’s only taken an average of 7.3 shots per game in the series.
Overall, Dort is averaging just 7.3 ppg in the series, scoring eight in Game 2 and just two points in Game 3. The Thunder don’t need Dort to step on in a scoring role, and it’s likely that he continues to be a last option in most sets for Oklahoma City Saturday and throughout the playoffs. Even with his scoring total set at just 8.5 points, I’m still taking the Under on Dort in Game 4.
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