After a challenging first few months of the season, the Miami Heat have found their rhythm, securing victories in seven of their last 10 games. Look for them tonight as I keep that impressive play alive against a below-average Atlanta Hawks team.
Atlanta has disappointed, but it brings a two-game winning streak into Monday. It’ll need to move the ball around and find different ways to score in this one to beat Miami.
Find out your best options with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Hawks vs. Heat tonight.
Heat vs Hawks best odds
Heat vs Hawks picks and predictions
Bam Adebayo has been the most consistent player for the Miami Heat this season, establishing himself as a steady and reliable All-Star that fits the mold of "Heat culture". Tonight, he gets a Hawks team that is far from intimidating.
This season, Adebayo is averaging an impressive 21.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Atlanta is in trouble, as it has one of the worst rebound rates in the entire NBA (48.1%). With its center Clint Capela still sidelined, it’s fair to question how it can keep Adebayo from crashing the boards.
Rebounding isn’t the only issue the Hawks will have to deal with here. The 25-year-old Adebayo can score, and Onyeka Okungwu, who will see a lot of time on Adebayo, will have his hands full. In the last matchup between the two teams, Adebayo combined for 40 points and rebounds, clearly looking a step ahead and physically more dominant.
Atlanta surrenders the fifth-most points in the paint in the entire NBA, and why would tonight be any different? Expect Adebayo to continue his strong play with a big performance.
My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 32.5 points and rebounds (-113)
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Heat vs Hawks spread analysis
This matchup is a predictably close one, with Miami holding a slight -1.5 spread advantage. We know Miami has a solid defense — currently ranking fourth in the NBA in — but does Atlanta have enough actually to cover the spread against a formidable defensive unit?
Recent history isn’t on Trae Young’s side in this one. The Heat have a physical and smart defense that won’t allow Young to get to his spots and dominate a game.
This has been the case for Trae against Miami in the last three matchups, failing to shoot over 27.3%. In the previous matchup, Miami won by nine, and Young scored an unimpressive 22 points on 25% shooting.
The Heat are a below-500 ATS team with a 17-24-2 record. Luckily, the Hawks in the same boat at 17-25-1 ATS. With Miami’s tough defense already shutting down Young this year, it seems like the Heat should be in a prime position to pick up an ATS win tonight.
Heat vs Hawks Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under is currently set at 223.5. The Under is an interesting play, with Miami playing defense so well, combined with its struggles offensively.
Atlanta has hit the Over in 23 of its 40 games this season while Miami has in 20 of 44. This season, the only matchup between the two teams resulted in the Under by 21.5 points in a low-scoring affair.
Tonight shouldn’t be all that different. The Heat are defense-first team that is still dealing with many injuries. Kyle Lowry is out, and Tyler Herro is continuously on the injury report. This game is one of these grudge matches in the Eastern Conference that will be an ugly, low-scoring battle. Take the Under!
Heat vs Hawks betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hawks.
Heat vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, January 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
