Heat vs Magic Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Bam Flexes Playmaking Muscles

It’s a battle atop the Southeast Division standings on Sunday, January 21 as the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat square off for the second time in 10 days.

After a red-hot start, the Magic have fallen back to Earth in recent weeks with Franz Wagner missing time. In his absence, Paolo Banchero has done his best to squeeze blood from the collection of stones that is the Orlando offense to no avail. The Magic are still so nasty on defense, however, that they can’t be underestimated.

The Heat won a tight one when these two teams faced off back on January 12, but they’ll be without rookie standout Jaimi Jaquez Jr. as they look to bounce back after a pair of brutal losses.

My free NBA picks for Heat vs. Magic expect Bam Adebayo to have another strong playmaking game.

Heat vs Magic odds

Heat vs Magic predictions

There is perhaps no better litmus test between the casual fan and the hardcore NBA analyst than how they perceive the value of Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo.

Bam is not a big scorer, nor does he make many highlight reels, but there’s also a reason that he’s been the second-best player on a team that has made the NBA Finals twice in four years.

He’s the embodiment of a player that isn’t captured just in the box score, a player who does so many little things on both ends that add up to a much greater whole. He hasn’t had a great season so far from a scoring perspective, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t having an impact. In addition to his All-Defense caliber work quarterbacking Miami’s backline, he’s having a strong playmaking season as well.

Bam has seen his assist percentage jump from 15.4% last year to 21.1%, the highest mark since Miami’s magical Bubble run. He’s the ultimate dribble hand-off facilitator, setting screens and flipping the angles just so as to squeeze out an inch of space for a Heat shooter to get a clean look. 

However, he’s got more in his bag than just DHOs. He can grab and go and run the break like a point guard. His mid-range jumper also has to be respected to the point he can back opponents down in the post, draw help, and fling a pass to the perimeter. 

He and Duncan Robinson have some of the best two-man game chemistry in the league, and Duncan’s rise from benched afterthought in the middle of last year to a core rotation piece has benefited Bam as well.

Adebayo also sees a slight bump in his playmaking responsibilities when Jaime Jacques hasn’t played, to the tune of about an additional .5 assists per game. Jacques is set to miss his fourth straight on Sunday, meaning more reps for Bam and the other Heat starters.

Tyler Herro is officially probable, but I can see his on-ball role being diminished in favor of Adebayo due to the play of Jalen Suggs. 

Suggs is such a menace, he’ll not only work to ball-deny Herro as much as possible, but he’s going to wear him down and tire him out if he spends much of the game bringing the ball up. The ball should end up in Bam’s hands a lot to run the offense.

Adebayo is averaging 4.7 assists in his last 10 outings. He’s also gone Over this mark in half his last 10 games, and in many cases well Over. To get real plus money value for these Bam Adebayo odds makes this a solid pick.

My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 assists (+115 at bet365)

Heat vs Magic same-game parlay

Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 assists

Paolo Banchero Under 24.5 points

Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 rebounds

+485 at DraftKings

I’m kind of betting on Bam twice here, once as a playmaker, and then again as the primary reason I’m shorting Paolo Banchero. Last but not least, I like Suggs Over 2.5 rebounds as the third leg.

This Under bet on Paolo’s points prop is another vote of confidence in Adebayo. Paolo has not had much success against the Heat defense in his young career, in large part because Bam seems almost built in a lab to guard him. Bam can match Paolo’s size, speed, and physicality, but he edges him out with veteran savvy.

Adebayo is also not easily baited into foul trouble, and Paolo does a large portion of his damage from the charity stripe. Through five career matchups against Bam, he's averaging just 17.4 points on 44.3% true shooting. There’s also the possibility that Franz Wagner makes his much-anticipated return in this one, which could further depress Paolo’s production.

Suggs, meanwhile, continues to find ways to play winning basketball. He’s already a difference-maker with his outrageously good on-ball defense and his developing outside shot, but he’s getting better at mixing it up on the glass as well. Suggs has had 3+ rebounds in seven of his last nine games.

Both because of their mutually strong defenses and weak offenses, every possession is going to matter in this game. I expect Suggs to do his part to help Orlando win the possession game. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis

NBA odds have this game as a virtual pick‘em, with the Heat being listed as slight 1- to 1.5-point favorites against Orlando on Sunday.

These squads are going through some adversity in this part of the season. The Magic and Heat are each coming off back-to-back losses, and the Magic are also 3-7 over their last 10. The Heat have been a bit better but collapsed in the final minute against the Hawks and got blown off the court by a ho-hum Raptors team. 

Both teams have a negative point differential over the past two weeks, but the Heat have come up short of expectations by significantly more. Miami is underperforming the spread by an average of 3.6 points per game over their last seven outings.

The Magic are also a strong home team. They’re now 12-6 against the spread at home, including 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.

Sunday’s total opened at 213.5 and has since climbed to 215.5. Even at that new high watermark, that is just about the smallest total you'll see for a game this regular season. 

These teams are almost a mirror image of one another. While the Magic are young and out to prove themselves and the Heat are a collection of proven veterans, they both field some of the best defenses in the Association. 

They also happen to play some of the ugliest offensive basketball going. Over the past two weeks, these are both Top-10 defenses and Bottom-5 offenses, per Cleaning the Glass.

Heat vs Magic betting trend to know

The Under is 15-7 in Miami’s last 22 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Magic.

Heat vs Magic game info

Heat vs Magic latest injuries

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