The Kansas City Chiefs captured home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with the best record in the league. That means C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans will face not only a fiery crowd at Arrowhead Stadium, but also chilly winter weather for this NFL Divisional Round showdown on Saturday.
Here are my best Texans vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for January 18.
Texans vs Chiefs prediction
Texans vs Chiefs best bet
C.J. Stroud Under 228.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The last time C.J. Stroud took on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, he finished 23-for-39 with 244 yards passing, along with two touchdowns and two interceptions, in an 8-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It was one of the rare games in which Stroud had his Top 2 targets, receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, until Dell suffered a season-ending knee injury on a touchdown catch early in the third quarter.
Stroud’s Week 16 stat line continued a trend of troublesome outings for the second-year quarterback, who watches his passing production dip significantly when playing outdoors. His metrics see an even steeper nosedive in cold and inclement weather.
Stroud’s completion rate outdoors is just below 59% (compared to 65% inside), his average yards per attempt sinks to 6.6 (versus eight yards per throw indoors), and his passer rating sits short of 84.0, in stark contrast to a 99.6 rating away from the elements.
The forecast for Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff calls for sub-freezing temperatures and wind gusts flirting with 30 mph, which will make it “feel like” 11 degrees in the first quarter and only get colder as the sun sets over Chiefs Kingdom. NFL games see an 8% decrease in passing production in games with temperatures below 25 degrees.
That’s the average. For Saturday, we’re talking about an indoor QB coming to the loudest stadium in the league for a playoff game and facing a Super Bowl-winning defense that is peaking at the perfect time.
After seemingly sleepwalking through most of the season, Kansas City turned up the intensity in the home stretch of the schedule. The Chiefs ranked No. 3 in EPA allowed per dropback and success rate per pass from Week 13 to Week 17, before resting most starters in the season finale.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has had two weeks to rest his guys, return some key pieces from injury, and scheme up something perfect against Stroud. The Chiefs have an aggressive pass rush, which ranked fourth in blitz frequency and fifth in pressure rate per dropback, and goes after a Houston Texans offensive line that has been in shambles all season.
The Texans have allowed Stroud to feel pressure at the third-highest clip in the NFL, giving up 52 sacks in the regular season (second-most), 66 hurries (most in the NFL), and finished 22nd in pass block win rate at ESPN. With Spags keeping Stroud under duress, he won't have much time in the pocket to allow deeper downfield plays to develop.
Any passes Houston does complete will be quick short shots to relieve pressure. Stroud averaged 7.0 yards per attempt on the season but was limited to just 5.5 yards per pass in that run-in with Kansas City in Week 16.
Player projections for Stroud aren’t glowing by any means, with only one model projecting more than 230 yards through the air. The majority of those forecasts come in around 220 yards, with my number below that benchmark.
Not only is the weather working against Stroud against one of the best passing defenses in the land, but game script says Kansas City will be playing with a lead in the second half.
We’re seen the Chiefs put games in sand in the final 30 minutes, leaning into the run to chew up clock and extending drives with an elite offense on third downs. Houston will be pressing pass to catch up — which the Chiefs know — but I don’t think Stroud gets the possessions needed to threaten this passing yards total.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Texans vs. Chiefs picks and Divisional Round best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
Watch below — and check out new episodes on the Covers' YouTube channel!
Texans vs Chiefs same-game parlay
C.J. Stroud Under 228.5 passing yards
Chiefs -8.5
Isiah Pacheco anytime TD
Stroud’s stats slide outside and he faces the best pass defense in the NFL on Saturday night.
The Chiefs have another gear in the playoffs and will flex their muscle with a big win to start the Super Bowl run.
Isiah Pacheco will get the goal-line carries and is a monster to deal with in the playoffs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL Playoffs picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Chiefs odds
Texans vs Chiefs live odds
Texans vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Houston +8 | Kansas City -8
- Moneyline: Houston +300 | Kansas City -400
- Over/Under: Over 42 | Under 42
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City opened as an 8-point favorite for this Divisional Round matchup, which was the exact difference on the scoreboard when these teams clashed in Week 16. That spread has ticked up to the dead number of Chiefs -8.5.
- The total opened around 42 points and slimmed to 41.5 O/U. Houston and Kansas City combined for 46 points against a closing Over/Under of 42.5 points in their last meeting.
- BetMGM sportsbooks are reporting 56% of ticket count and 67% of handle (total money wagered) is laying the points with the Chiefs. As for the total, the ticket count is almost even for the O/U but 63% of the money wagered on the total is siding with the Under in Arrowhead.
Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Kansas City is 10-2 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in the playoffs since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
Texans vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-18-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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