Heat vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Miami Heads North With Revenge in Mind

The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat will play a rematch of their epic triple-overtime showdown from just a few days ago, this time in Toronto.

Both the Heat and Raptors are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight, but Miami clearly had this game in mind as it let Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker rest in preparation for this matchup. Does that make Miami a live road dog, or can Toronto cover the short home chalk?

Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Heat vs. Raptors on January 4.

Heat vs Raptors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 3-point home favorites and have been bet down to 2.5. The total hit the board at 210.5 and that’s where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Heat vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Miami +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 210.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Gary Trent Jr. Over 3.5 made threes (+100)

Predictions made on 2/1/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, February 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SN, BSSUN

Heat vs Raptors betting preview

Injuries

Heat: Jimmy Butler SF (Questionable), P.J. Tucker PF (Questionable), Kyle Lowry PG (Questionable).
Raptors: Khem Birch C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 9-3 in the Raptors’ last 12 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Raptors.

Heat vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Heat and Raptors played an epic, back-and-forth, triple-overtime matchup just back on Saturday night, which the Raps were able to gut out thanks to some clutch shooting from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. So, what will these teams give us for an encore?

For starters, both teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back. Toronto grabbed a 106-100 victory over the Atlanta Hawks last night while the Heat were throttled by the Boston Celtics 122-92. The only difference is that the Heat played their game without Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker.

Now, they are nursing legitimate injuries, but it really looks like the Heat had this matchup circled on their calendars and wanted two of their key players ready. On top of that, there is a chance Kyle Lowry might play after missing several weeks for personal reasons.

The Raptors were able to win the last matchup thanks to some hot shooting while limiting the Heat to just 32 percent from 3-point range. But Toronto is still one of the most inefficient shooting teams in the NBA, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage while the Heat rank seventh in offensive rating.

That said, this is mostly about narrative. The Raptors had to work so hard for that win over Miami, with five of their starters logging 50-plus minutes, and that didn’t really change in last night’s game with them all putting up 35-plus this time around.

The Heat are a well-coached team coming off an embarrassing loss and could be getting some key players back against a Raptors team with some heavy legs. Look at the Heat ATS and even on the moneyline.

Prediction: Heat +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the gut reaction here is Under. This could be a real grind-it-out slugfest between two teams who are tired but can still get after it on defense.

As noted, the Raptors can be a streaky shooting team and that has led to some inconsistent results. They rank 22nd in scoring, averaging 107.5 points per game. Now, they face a Heat team that ranks seventh in the NBA in defensive rating.

Meanwhile, the Heat are a great 3-point shooting team but average a middling 108.7 points per game because of their slow tempo.

Miami ranks 26th in the NBA in pace, just one spot ahead of Toronto. So, both teams love to slow the game down and we saw that in the previous triple-overtime matchup, as the game was tied at just 100 at the end of regulation. 

The Under looks like a really solid bet here once again.

Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)

Best bets

Slow grind

We are doubling up on best bets once again as the Under looks like a solid play for the second straight night. Neither of these teams have high-scoring attacks, while Toronto can be sunk further due to streaky shooting. Plus, both of these teams rank toward the bottom in pace. The Under is one of our best bets tonight but we don’t want to stop there.

Pick: Under 210.5 (-110)

Trent dialed in

Even though the Raptors can be an inconsistent shooting team, the same can’t be said about Gary Trent Jr. right now. The Raptors’ shooting guard is on fire ever since he has returned from an ankle injury. 

Trent is hitting a ridiculous 47.1% of his 11.3 attempts per game from downtown, sinking at least three threes in each game over that span. He has also hit four or more in each of his last five games, including going 5-15 in that last meeting against the Heat.

While Trent is probably tired, the Raps just don’t have a lot of other options at the moment, and the Heat don’t match up overly well against him. Miami allows the third-most 3-point attempts per game this season, ranking 16th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

At even money, we’re betting Gary stays hot for at least one more game.

Pick: Gary Trent Jr. Over 3.5 Made Threes (+100)

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