The banged-up Toronto Raptors are getting some reinforcements when a familiar face comes to town on Wednesday night.
Toronto's starting backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are both expected back on the court after missing the team’s last game against the Pistons. And when they do, they’ll be staring across at the GROAT (Greatest Raptor Of All Time) as Kyle Lowry and the Miami Heat come to Canada.
The Raps and Heatles split their two previous meetings in Miami this season with Toronto covering both spreads. But can it do that without Pascal Siakam this time around?
I dig through the numbers and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Heat vs. Raptors.
Heat vs Raptors best odds
Heat vs Raptors picks and predictions
Despite being without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa, and losing Otto Porter Jr. midgame, the Raptors were able to overcome the dreaded Casey Curse — defeating the Pistons for the first time in seven attempts.
They will get some of their much-needed depth and two of their best shot creators back with VanVleet and Trent Jr. returning to the lineup. Those are exactly the kind of guys the Raps will need to step up in this matchup against the Heat.
That’s because Miami’s defense is all about collapsing on the interior and living and dying on the opposing team’s 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 27th in the NBA when it comes to opponent 3-point attempts per game and 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage — allowing teams to hit 37.4% of their shots from deep.
With their starting backcourt back in the mix, Toronto becomes a dangerous — but streaky — shooting team.
VanVleet is shooting 42.3% from beyond the arc on 8.3 attempts per game while Trent is a bit cold to start the season. He isn’t afraid to shoot his shot, jacking up over 10 treys per contest. With the likes of O.G. Anunoby and Chris Boucher also hitting threes at a reliable rate, the Raptors have the ability to take advantage of the Heat’s approach to defending the 3-point line.
That suspect defense takes a hit with the news Bam Adebayo is now out. Bam had also been rolling for Miami, putting up 54 points and 25 rebounds over the last two games. That’s a ton of production at both ends of the floor to replace.
Look for Toronto's shooters to have a good night and lead it to a close win at home.
My best bet: Raptors moneyline (-120 at PointsBet)
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Heat vs Raptors spread analysis
Having VanVleet and Trent back is obviously a big deal for the Raptors, but will it be enough in this matchup against the Heat with Siakam still sidelined? And is it enough to cover this short spread?
Toronto has hit the board as a 1.5-point home dog but the line has since jumped the fence to -1.5 with the news Bam Adebayo would miss this game. The Raptors were 3.5 road dogs in the prior two meetings, but that was with Siakam in the lineup.
Siakam averaged 23 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists in those two early matchups against Miami, so his loss will certainly be felt. So, the Raptors will need another strong performance from Anunoby and their bench if they want to walk away with a win on Wednesday night.
Luckily for Toronto, the Heat injury report almost looks as bad as the Raptors these days. Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo are already listed as out, with Dewayne Dedmon also listed as questionable.
Bam not being available will be a problem for a Heat offense that has been inconsistent this season. They rank an unsurprising 15th in offensive rating, 20th in effective field goal percentage, and are going against a tenacious Raptors team that can switch all over the court and generates more steals than anyone.
Additionally, Miami isn’t as stout defensively as we’ve become accustomed to. The Heat rank 16th in defensive rating and as noted can get burned on the perimeter, something Toronto can take advantage of.
No official play for me here, because I truly see this matchup as a bit of a coin flip. Jimmy Butler is still a star and Kyle Lowry will look to have a good game against his former team. But a little sprinkle on the Raptors' moneyline doesn’t feel like a bad bet tonight.
Heat vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the number hit the board at 215 and has been bet up slightly to 216. My gut says the number is too high. The first game between these two saw a combined score of 221 while the second saw a much lower 188, and I tend to think the second game is closer to the norm for a matchup between these teams.
We already talked about the Heat’s inefficiencies on offense this season, as a result, they rank 20th in scoring at 110.7 points per game and now will be without Adebayo — who had been on a roll lately. But they won’t be the only offense with question marks in this matchup.
Toronto generates a good portion of its offense by creating steals and getting out in the transition game. And the Heat are a fairly disciplined team that takes care of the ball (eighth in turnover rate). When the Raps aren’t getting steals, the halfcourt offense is subpar at best and that’s when Siakam is on the floor.
As a result, Toronto ranks 25th in effective field goal rate and is scoring 109 points per game without him on the floor.
Mix in two teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in pace and this game should play Under the number.
Heat vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Raptors.
Heat vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, City, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 16, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet |
Heat vs Raptors key injuries
