As the Houston Rockets continue to attempt to improve their slim NBA Play-In Tournament odds, Ime Udoka’s squad will have a tough test with the Miami Heat visiting the Toyota Center.
The Heat, who sit seventh in the Eastern Conference, are a 2-point favorite over the Rockets by the NBA odds and have an obvious advantage in the frontcourt. With Houston down potentially three of its four top rebounders, the Rockets could have a tough time dealing with Bam Adebayo.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Rockets on Friday, April 5.
Heat vs Rockets predictions
My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)
It wasn’t long ago that the Houston Rockets looked like they may overcome losing star center Alperen Sengun to a season-ending injury. The team ripped off 11 straight wins — nine without Sengun — and was putting pressure on the Golden State Warriors for the 10th seed in the Western Conference and an NBA Play-In Tournament berth.
However, those hopes came crashing down quickly after losing three straight games, including most recently falling 133-110 to the Warriors. Clearly without Sengun, Houston isn’t the same in the frontcourt.
Sengun didn’t just lead the team in points per game (21.1), he was the leading rebounder (9.3) and without him, Miami Heat All-Star Bam Adebayo is in perfect position to clean the glass all night and finish with Over 10.5 rebounds.
Adebayo is ninth in the NBA in rebounds per game (10.6) and 10th in the league in defensive rebound percentage (24.8%). He poses a tough matchup for a Houston team that’s allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game to opponents (43.6) and the fifth-most defensive rebounds (33.0).
To make matters tougher on Houston, the Rockets are also down third-leading rebounder Tari Eason, while fourth-leading rebounder Amen Thompson is a game-time decision. That leaves second-year big man Jabari Smith Jr. to battle with Adebayo for boards.
Despite being the third overall pick last year and showing promise, the 20-year-old Smith hasn’t been the same rebounding threat as of late. He’s averaging 8.2 per game, but has had eight or fewer in seven straight games. Over that span, Smith is averaging just 5.0 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, Adebayo has had at least 11 rebounds in seven of his last 12 games and has been averaging 12.1 rebounds over that stretch. The former Kentucky Wildcats star has been a rebounding monster and it doesn’t look like that will stop in Houston.
Heat vs Rockets same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds
Fred VanVleet Over 7.5 assists
Jalen Green Under 24.5 points
Down Sengun, NBA veteran Fred VanVleet has had to take on a larger role creating offense for Houston. He leads the team with 8.1 assists per game and has had at least eight in 10 of his last 17, while averaging 8.6 per game.
Jalen Green, on the other hand may have difficulty lighting up the scoreboard. The 22-year-old is averaging 19.9 points per game and has had fewer than 14 in two of his last three games. This is a Heat defense that’s fourth in the NBA in points allowed (108.4) and gives up 21.52 points per game to shooting guards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs Rockets odds and trends
Heat vs Rockets live odds
Heat vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Miami +1 (-115) | Houston -1 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami -110 | Houston -110
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
Heat vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat opened as 1.5-point favorites at most books, but a few did have Houston -1 to start. That’s quickly shifted though with most books now offering the Heat -2 to -2.5.
- Miami has struggled ATS this season at 36-38-2 while Houston has been one of the best in the NBA at 42-32-2. However, the Rockets have covered in just one of their last four games.
- With both of these defenses ranking Top 6 in defensive rating, the game total opened at 214.5 and has only moved up to 215.
- No team in the NBA hits the Under at a more consistent rate than Miami, going 46-30. Houston is 37-37-2.
Heat vs Rockets trend
The Miami Heat have hit the Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.90 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets.
Heat vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Home Network, Bally Sports Sun |
Not intended for use in MA.
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