The Miami Heat continue their lengthy Western Conference road trip as they head to Chesapeake Energy Arena to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action on Monday.
While the Heat won't be able to say "welcome to Miami" until they host the Raptors on Wednesday, they might be getting a gift-wrapped souvenir in the Thunder, who are just 4-9 SU at home.
NBA betting lines have the Heat installed as 6-point road favorites with the total at 211.5. Here are our best free Heat vs. Thunder picks and predictions for Monday, February 22, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.
Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Tyler Herro G (Questionable), Goran Dragic PG (Out), Avery Bradley (Out), Meyers Leonard C (Out), Chris Silva PF (Out).
Thunder: George Hill G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Thunder are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Thunder.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMiami opened as a 5-point road favorite at FanDuel on Sunday night, moved to -6.5 this morning and onto -7.5 this afternoon. But the betting splits aren't as lopsided as the line move would indicate, with the Heat getting 60 percent of tickets and 59 percent of money on the spread, as of 6:30 p.m. ET. The total fell from 213.5 to 211.5 this morning, then rebounded to 213, with the Over attracting 72 percent of bets/75 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
This will be Miami's seventh consecutive game on the road. Although the Heat went through a rough patch with three consecutive losses during that span, they have turned things around with back-to-back wins in their last two contests.
The Thunder are coming off a win last night against Cleveland, which snapped their own three-game skid. After letting Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari go during the offseason, the Thunder have become one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency. Trading away center Steven Adams hurt them on the other end of the floor, with the Thunder falling from sixth in the league in scoring defense last season to 20th this year.
The Heat have been one of the league's worst ATS teams, due to injuries and a regression in play after their run to the NBA finals in the fall. That said, they have gone a solid 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games, so perhaps oddsmakers have started to adjust their lines to an appropriate level. Miami still looks like a playoff-caliber team and is led by an All-Star duo in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo who fill up the stat sheet on both ends of the floor.
With apologies to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are one of the least talented teams in the league and it's hard to back them on any line, especially on the tail end of a back-to-back. Take Miami.
PREDICTION: Miami -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Thunder have struggled to put the ball in the hoop, while the Heat rank seventh in the league in scoring defense by allowing 109.9 points per game. That said, there's reason to think the Over/Under of 211.5 tonight might be a tad too low.
Despite scoring just 107.2 ppg, the Thunder rank eighth in the league in possessions per game, so they play at a decent pace. Plus they also allow a whopping 117.2 ppg at home.
Although the Heat haven't been great on offense themselves, they rank third in the league in assists per field goal, so they do a good job of moving the ball. They're also tied for fourth in the league in two-point field goal percentage, shooting a sizzling 55.1 percent from inside the arc. Miami also has a tendency to light up the scoreboard against poor opposition, going 21-8 O/U in its last 29 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are 7-0 to the Over in their previous seven contests without a rest day. Back the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 211.5 (-110)
Team total pick
The Heat are coming off a 96-point performance on Saturday but that was against the Lakers, who lead the league in defensive efficiency. Miami is in a good position to bounce back with a strong offensive game tonight as they face a Thunder squad allowing 112.7 ppg.
As mentioned above, the Thunder have been particularly poor on the defensive end of the floor at home, giving up 117.2 ppg on 47.5 percent shooting.
Although the Heat are averaging just 106.8 ppg this season, they had scored at least 112 points in three consecutive games prior to Saturday's showdown against the Lakers. They also scored 118 points on 57 percent shooting when these teams met up earlier this year—take the Over on Miami's team total.
PREDICTION: Miami team total Over 109 (-115)
Heat vs Thunder betting card
- Miami -6 (-110)
- Over 211.5 (-110)
- Miami team total Over 109 (-115)
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