A pair of NBA championship contenders face off on Thursday night with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Miami Heat.
The Heat are coming off a big win in Portland last night and face a rested Warriors squad that is licking its wounds after getting torched in Phoenix. Oddsmakers expect the defending champs to cruise to victory here, with NBA betting lines opening with Golden State as a 7.5-point home favorite.
However, money has come in on the visitors and that line has slimmed to -6.5. Here are my best free Heat vs. Warriors NBA picks and predictions for October 27.
Heat vs Warriors best odds
Heat vs Warriors picks and predictions
The Warriors are still second on the NBA futures board but given how bad they have been defensively this season, it's tough to spot them this many points against a strong two-way team like Miami.
The Heat have been far better on the defensive end of the floor this season and while they struggled to knock down their shots against the Celtics and Raptors, they came alive on offense last night.
Point guard Kyle Lowry and big man Bam Adebayo were shooting just 28.2% and 45.6% from the field respectively before yesterday's contest. However, given their long-term resumes, positive regression was inevitable and it happened against the Blazers.
Add in do-everything All-Star Jimmy Butler and the sharp-shooting Tyler Herro, and the Heat should rarely be 6.5-point pups against anybody. Especially when you consider that they went 16-8 ATS as underdogs on the road last season.
Playing on back-to-back nights is tough but the fact that Miami was able to demolish Portland last night means that all five starters (and sixth man Max Strus) played fewer than 30 minutes. The Heat should be fresh enough to keep this game within six points.
My best bet: Heat +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Heat vs Warriors spread analysis
The Heat clobbered the previously unbeaten Blazers last night, blowing them out 119-98 on their home floor to improve to 2-3. It was a very impressive offensive performance for Miami, which needed it after a poor-shooting start to the season. The Heat shot 50.6% from the floor and 39.5% from 3-point range against the Blazers and had six players score at least 14 points.
That's a good sign for Heat bettors, as they now take on a Warriors squad that has struggled to defend this season. The defending champs were tenacious on the defensive end of the floor last year but are surrendering a league-worst 124 ppg this season.
Part of the reason for that is the blazing fast pace the Warriors play at but they're also allowing opponents to shoot a sizzling 58.4% from inside the arc, the second-worst number in the league.
The Dubs are coming off an ugly 134-105 loss to the Suns, where they got into foul trouble and couldn't knock down their shots from the perimeter. Despite some subpar shooting in that defeat, the Warriors are still one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league and have averaged 120.3 points per game.
The last time these teams faced off, in March, the Warriors destroyed the Heat 118-104. However, the Heat are still 4-2 ATS in six meetings against the Dubs since the start of the 2019-20 campaign (when they added Butler) and in their other ATS defeat, they took the game into overtime.
Heat vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 224.5 and surged up to 227.5 after money came in on the Over, before settling at 226.5.
With the Warriors playing at the fastest tempo in the NBA, struggling on the defensive end of the floor, and filling up the hoop, the Over has hit in all four of their games this season.
That said, the Heat have been playing at the fourth-slowest tempo in the league and are allowing the seventh-fewest points per game (106.4).
They were also just 25th in the league in effective field goal percentage (50%) prior to last night's sizzling 59.2 EFG% versus Portland.
The Over has also cashed in four straight meetings between these teams but all of those games had totals between 209.5 and 222.5.
Heat vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Over is 41-19-1 in Miami's last 61 games playing on zero days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Warriors.
Heat vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, October 27, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
