On the surface, this should be an easy handicap.
The Eastern Conference’s best team, the Boston Celtics, hosting its second worst, the Charlotte Hornets. After Thursday’s trade deadline flurry, perhaps the Hornets are the worst in the East. But this week can be a more difficult handicap than that, with reconfigured lineups finding unexpected sparks… or shocking duds.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Hornets vs. Celtics on February 10, with tip set for 7:30 ET.
Hornets vs Celtics best odds
Hornets vs Celtics picks and predictions
The Celtics keep churning no matter who shows up on their injury report. Jaylen Brown is out tonight and Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Robert Williams III are all on the injury report, as well. Oh, and Marcus Smart has missed the last eight games.
But this team is so deep, none of that matters these days. In the playoffs, of course, every one of those probable or questionable listings will elicit worry. But right now, hardly, particularly not against the Hornets.
Add in that Charlotte got weaker this week, moving Jalen McDaniels for some second-round draft picks. He had not missed a game this season, averaging 26.7 minutes per game. With 10.6 points, 4.8 rebounds. 2.0 assists, and 1.7 stocks per game, McDaniels ranked fifth, fourth, fifth, and third, respectively, among Hornets who had played at least 35 games this season. That kind of all-around production is hard to replace, hence his trade value.
To make matters worse for Charlotte tonight, Kelly Oubre Jr. is out with a hand injury. He ranked ahead of McDaniels in every one of those categories except assists.
Suddenly, this roster is turning to, uhhhh, Dennis Smith Jr. and Mark Williams off the bench. Oh, and JT Thor.
Hold on — this handicapper follows the NBA closer than most people follow any new HBO drama, but who is JT Thor? Allow a brief tangent in this conversation to investigate, as he has averaged 12.8 minutes per game in the last 10 games and that figures to rise now without McDaniels, particularly since they have similar body types.
He went to Auburn? Yours truly made good money off Auburn in recent NCAA tournaments, though he is too young to have been on that pre-pandemic Final Four team. Thor is in his second season in the league, and his season highs are 11 points and six rebounds. Okay, it’s forgivable to not know who he is. Yet, Charlotte will now need to rely on him.
There’s the flaw in taking this game seriously. After Duke product Williams, Thor should see the first uptick without McDaniels. No offense to him, but leaning on Thor for 15-20 minutes per game will be an expert way to tank. The Hornets are one of four teams far and away leading the pack in chasing Victor Wembanyama. And every loss matters among those four, given only three of them will get the best lottery chances at Wembanyama.
Removing an all-around player like McDaniels and replacing him with some minutes from a name catching a devout NBA fan off-guard, that’s tanking so strongly someone should make a Brad Pitt movie on it.
Compare that to the Celtics’ depth. If you rashly assume every name listed as probable or questionable tonight does not play — and to be clear, the inverse should likely be assumed — Boston’s sixth man would still be Luke Kornet or Blake Griffin. Take probable listings at face value, and the sixth man becomes Payton Pritchard or Sam Hauser. Add in Tatum … you get the idea.
The Celtics’ depth will help Charlotte’s tank tonight, drastically so.
My best bet: Celtics -11 (-112 at FanDuel)
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Hornets vs Celtics spread analysis
This line moved off -10.5 and some books jumped to -11.5 in favor of the Celtics as the previous paragraphs were typed. Assume that is a promising indication of Boston player availability, further underscoring that aforementioned talent disparity.
The line had previously held stable since opening at -10.5 on Thursday evening.
If such a lofty number worries you as a Celtics backer, then here is some comfort: Boston has gone 8-9 ATS as a favorite of 9.0 points or more this season. It is hardly an unusual spot for the Celtics or one with particularly bad results. And it has not yet featured an opponent giving up as hard as this Charlotte roster is about to.
Hornets vs Celtics Over/Under analysis
This total has only fallen since opening at 230.0 late Thursday, dropping to 226.0 by Friday lunchtime, with some books at 225.5.
Why? Maybe folks are realizing JT Thor is going to need to play 15 minutes tonight for the Hornets to simply have five players on the court the entire game.
That was probably too harsh. He is one of the best-400 basketball players in the world. Thor is as good at basketball as most of us are at eating pizza. The problem is, he is in a league filled with hundreds of Joey Chestnuts.
Hornets vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Charlotte’s last five games and 3-0 in Boston’s last three games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Celtics.
Hornets vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, February 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, NBCS-BOS |
