The two biggest freaks in the NBA go toe-to-toe at Frost Bank Center when Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Milwaukee Bucks on the road against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs tonight.
Given the hot streak both of these teams have been on when it comes to betting the Over, and both Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama being mismatches, I’m expecting points to be aplenty in my Bucks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Friday, January 31.
Bucks vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Over 233 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Since January 10, the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks are a combined 15-2 betting the Over.
San Antonio is middle of the pack this season when it comes to offense — 15th in both points per game (112.1) and offensive rating (112.8) — but it has steadily gotten better each month as Victor Wembanyama develops into a superstar in his second season.
After putting up just 103.6 ppg in October, the Spurs have jumped up to 112.6, 113.1, and now 113.9 ppg with each passing month. That’s also coincided with the defense getting worse.
The Spurs are mediocre on defense, ranking 19th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive rating, despite Wembanyama leading the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds. However, San Antonio’s defense has struggled even more as of late.
In January, the Spurs are giving a whopping 121.8 ppg to opponents, which includes allowing offenses to shoot 48.3% from the floor and 39.7% from behind the arc. With a defense like that, their only chance to compete is to score.
Luckily, the core of Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Chris Paul, and Stephon Castle have enough to push the Bucks’ defense. Milwaukee is allowing the eighth-most threes per game and San Antonio wants to pull from deep — taking the sixth-most shots from behind the arc in the league.
More important for this Over to hit, though, is Milwaukee taking advantage of San Antonio’s dreadful defense. While he won’t win MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo is having that caliber of season and has the Bucks dominating with offense in January — 118.6 ppg, 50.3% field goal percentage.
He and Damian Lillard are combining to score 57 points per game and have Milwaukee ranked in the Top 10 in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and 3-point percentage.
This San Antonio defense doesn’t stand a chance. It has been getting demolished inside the arc this season, allowing the fifth-most twos per game (29.3) while remaining susceptible on the perimeter, giving up the 11th-most threes (13.7).
Bucks vs Spurs same-game parlay
Over 232.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 points+rebounds
Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 threes
Though he won’t win it with the way Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are playing, Antetokounmpo is more than worthy of MVP this season. He’s putting up a career-high 31.7 ppg and is one of only two players even scoring 25+ a night with over 12 rebounds.
That’s why he’s poised to pop off against this Spurs defense, especially with the level he’s been at as of late. Over his last six games, Antetokounmpo is putting up 34 points and 13.8 rebounds per game — he’s gone Over 44.5 combined in five of those outings.
He should clear this number again against the Spurs, which is why Wembanyama will need to make a difference from deep to keep San Antonio in it. The sophomore leads his team in threes per game (3.2) and has hit three or more in five of his last six games.
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Bucks vs Spurs odds
Bucks vs Spurs live odds
Bucks vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -3 | San Antonio +3
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -150 | San Antonio +125
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Bucks vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened between a 2.5 and 3-point favorite, with the line shifting a half point further in Milwaukee's direction to -3.5 at most books
- The Bucks are 22-23-1 ATS this season, but 6-2 in their last eight, while San Antonio is 21-23.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 230.5 and has steadily increased to between 232.5 and 233.5.
- Milwaukee is 23-23 betting the Over this season and San Antonio is 24-20.
Bucks vs Spurs trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the game total Over in 21 of their last 34 away games (+6.70 Units/ 18% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Spurs.
How to watch Bucks vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Friday, 1-31-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSWI, KENS |
Bucks vs Spurs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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