Hornets vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Boston Gets Stung in the Garden

The Boston Celtics (23-22) continue to have the long-term viability of their roster questioned, most notably with the pairing of star players Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. But despite that noise, the team has quietly strung together quality performances of late, winning five of their last six. On Wednesday night, they will host the Charlotte Hornets (24-20), also winners of five of their last six. 

Continue reading for our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Hornets vs. Celtics on Wednesday, January 19th for more.

Hornets vs Celtics odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Celtics opened as 4.5-point favorites but have since moved down to -3. The total opened at 219.5 and took action all the way down to 217 before climbing back up to the opening number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Hornets vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Hornets +3 (-101)
• Prediction: Over 219.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Hornets +3 (-101)

Predictions made on 01/19/2022 at 2:09 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Hornets vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Hornets vs Celtics betting preview

Injuries

Hornets: Kelly Oubre Jr. G (Out).
Celtics: Marcus Smart G (Out), Aaron Nesmith F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Celtics are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Celtics.

Hornets vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

A lot of questions surround how well of a fit Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are alongside each other. Tatum has notably been an inefficient volume scorer this year, putting up 25.5 points per game (8th in the league) on a career-low 3-point percentage (32.3%) with career-high attempts (8.2 per game). That discrepancy largely contributes to his effective field goal percentage (48.0%) being a whopping 5% below last year's mark. Brown (24.2 PPG), on the other hand, has been more efficient (53.3% eFG%) on less volume (two fewer attempts per game).

But therein lies a larger problem. Are Tatum, Brown, and the rest of the roster products of an offensive system that encourages isolation ball (fourth highest frequency), or are they the cause of the system existing? They rank ninth in points per possession on isolation plays, but those plays are generating just 0.91 PPP. They also have the highest rank in spot-up frequency but barely an above-average efficiency on those shots (12th in PPP). When looking at their shot mix, it's no wonder that a team that stands around waiting on isolation plays or spot-up shots ranks 22nd in offensive rating.

Luckily for the Celtics, the other side of the ball has kept them relatively afloat, ranking seventh in defensive rating. They've also played well at home since their 0-3 start, winning 15 of their last 20 games at the Garden. That includes a current four-game winning streak, during which they've flexed their defensive acumen by holding teams to an average of 94.3 points per game.

That defense will be a good test for the Hornets, who rank fifth in offensive rating. The Hornets accomplish this largely through relatively careful and mindful passing, ranking third in assist percentage (65.7%) and sixth in assist-to-turnover rate (2.03). They also play at a lightning speed, ranking tops in transition frequency, ninth in points per possession in transition, and first in overall pace. This is largely a product of their ability to force turnovers (13.0 per game), ranking fourth in steals with nine per game.

This is where the matchup gets interesting. Boston, as we've previously established, is not exactly the type of team that emphasizes meaningful passing. The Celtics assist just 56.2% of their makes, which ranks 27th in the league. Despite that low passing volume, they still have the 12th highest turnover rate in the league. 

Expect the Hornets to make enough of that advantage to play safely within the spread.

Prediction: Hornets +3 (-101)

Over/Under analysis

The last time these teams met, they combined for 204 shots (including 94 threes) and 269 points. Granted, that game went to overtime, but the two still scored 244 points in regulation and played at a pace that allowed Tatum to put up one of his two 40+ point performances this season while Brown added 30 of his own.

Marcus Smart will also miss this contest as he builds his conditioning after a stint on the COVID list. Of the Celtics' 12 players who have appeared in 20+ games, Smart possesses the second-lowest effective field goal percentage. He also shoots a very pedestrian 30.5% from three, the lowest mark of any of the "regular" 3-point shooters (>100 attempts). To put it simply, his volume going elsewhere lends its hand to more scoring.

The Celtics also will get Robert Williams III back, who missed the last game due to the birth of his child. Williams brings a presence on the inside that isn't found elsewhere on the roster, whether it's his offensive rebounding (4th in the league) or his touches in the paint (his 9.4 per game more than doubles the next highest on the roster).

Prediction: Over 219.5 (-110)

Best bet

While the Celtics, winners of seven of their last ten, are rolling, they haven't exactly been able to put away teams when it comes to the spread. They have covered just two of their last 10 spreads as favorites, including just two of their last seven at home. Conversely, the Hornets are 6-3 in their last nine contests as underdogs and possess the fourth-highest cover percentage in the NBA.

The structure of the matchup also favors the Hornets. The Celtics' top-ranked frequency on spot-up shots plays right into Charlotte's ability to defend that approach, allowing just 0.97 points per possession - a mark that ranks ninth-lowest in the league. And again, expect the Celtics to cough up the ball enough for the Hornets to do sizable damage in transition.

Pick: Hornets +3 (-101)

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