The Toronto Raptors may be coming off a win but to say the sky isn’t falling in The Six like a meteor from above would be false. The team is 17-23 but it feels like the NBA is waiting to see if the Raptors are going to blow it all up and trade away their valuable pieces.
Tonight could be a showcase for those pieces, as they host another struggling Eastern Conference team in the Charlotte Hornets.
The only buzz around the Hornets this season is the potential of landing Victor Wembanyama, but should the Raptors be an 8-point favorite against anyone?
I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you my best bet in our NBA picks and predictions for the Hornets vs. Raptors.
Hornets vs Raptors best odds
Hornets vs Raptors picks and predictions
Yes, the Raptors are coming off a 117-105 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers, but some of the same old problems popped up.
The Raptors allowed the Blazers to shoot 45% from the field and didn’t shoot overly well themselves. If Portland hadn’t thrown up all over itself, committing 22 turnovers, the Raptors might have lost for the 12th time in their last 15 games.
When the season started, the Raptors' defense was tenacious, flying all over the court, causing turnovers, and just generally making life unpleasant for their opponents. That just hasn’t been the case over the last month.
Over this 15-game stretch, the Raptors have dropped all the way to 21st in defensive rating, 26th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 29th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
There is no way I can feel confident in backing the Raptors, laying this many points, considering the way they are playing. So, let’s focus on their weakness lately — defending the 3-ball.
For that, let’s back Terry Rozier to go Over his made 3-pointer prop. Scary Terry has had a bit of a tough year with his long-range shooting, hitting just 31.6% of his 3-point attempts, but Rozier has started to find his shooting rhythm.
Rozier is 14-for-39 (35.6%) over his last four games and has hit three or more threes three times (say that five times fast) over that stretch. Back him to burn the Raps with a trey of treys in this one.
My best bet: Terry Rozier Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+100 at PointsBet)
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Hornets vs Raptors spread analysis
Toronto opened this matchup as 7.5-point home chalk and has seen the early money moving it up to -8. As someone who watches every Raptors game, laying this many points makes me uncomfortable.
This will be the fourth straight game the Raptors will have been favored in. I wasn’t so sure they should have been favored in the last three. They did lose two of those games outright. While I do think they should be favored in this matchup with the Hornets, asking them to cover eight points is asking a lot.
The Raptors are 4-11 straight up and 5-10 against the spread over the last 15 games. We already talked about how the defense has taken a step back and while the Hornets are not a great team, they play at a high pace and take a lot of shots.
Then there is the Raptors’ offense. At the best of times, the half-court offense can stall, but the last 15 games have been particularly bad. Toronto ranks 23rd in the NBA in offensive rating and dead last in effective field goal percentage.
Sure, if everything clicks for the Raps they can cover this number. But their overall play of late doesn’t suggest that is anywhere close to a reliable notion. I’m staying away from the spread here.
Hornets vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The total for this Eastern Conference matchup hit the board at 231 and the early money has been on the Under, driving the number down to 229 as of Tuesday afternoon. While I generally think of the Raptors as an Under team, that’s not really the case anymore because of their defensive troubles.
While the Hornets aren’t a great offense, but they rank in the Top 10 in the NBA in pace and put up a ton of shots. Over the last 10 games, they’ve upped their scoring to nearly 116 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Hornets' defense isn’t much to write home about either. They rank 26th in defensive rating and 28th in scoring defense giving up 118.1 points per game. So, even the Raps struggling half-court offense should get some buckets in this one. I would lean toward the Over.
Hornets vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Over is 18-8 in the last 26 road games and 9-4-1 in the Raptors' last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Raptors.
Hornets vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, TSN |
Hornets vs Raptors key injuries
