Jazz vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Offenses Stay Quiet As Defenses Step Up

The Utah Jazz will try to build on their Western Conference-best 12-6 record when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers at the Crypto.com Arena Monday night.

L.A. has also enjoyed a strong start to the season, winning seven of its last 10 to move to 10-7 on the year. Both teams are part of a logjam at the top of the Western Conference, which sees nine teams separated by just two games in the standings. 

When these teams met two weeks ago, Utah left Los Angeles with a hard-earned win. We’ll talk about how tonight’s matchup might be different in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Clippers on November 21.

Jazz vs Clippers best odds

Jazz vs Clippers picks and predictions

These two teams have already played against each other in Los Angeles this year, with the Jazz picking up a 110-102 win back on November 6. Two weeks later, Utah is once again visiting the Clippers, but the rematch will look a bit different.

Both teams have suffered injuries since then, though they have continued winning nonetheless. Jazz point guard Mike Conley left Saturday’s win over the Portland Trail Blazers with a left knee injury. While he won’t need surgery, Conley is expected to miss at least two weeks.

Conley is a key cog in a Utah offense that ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 117.6 points per game. While he isn’t a prolific scorer himself (10.2 ppg), Conley averages 7.9 assists per game as the primary ballhandler. 

Los Angeles is facing uncertainty for Monday night after leading scorer Paul George left Saturday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs after tweaking his calf. George remains questionable against the Jazz at the time of this writing.

Those absences could tamp down on the scoring in Monday’s rematch. That could make for a low-scoring affair, as these teams already played to a total of 212 points in their first meeting this season.

While Utah is among the top-scoring teams in the NBA, the Clippers rank just 30th at 105.2 points per game. However, Los Angeles has found success by shutting down opponents on the other end of the court.

Teams are scoring just 105.4 points a night against the Clippers, the second-lowest total in the league. Opponents are shooting just 44.2% from the field against Los Angeles — the lowest figure in the NBA — and the Clippers are second in the league in defensive efficiency.

As a result, it’s rare to see a lot of points scored in a Clippers game. Los Angeles has played to a total of 220 or more only once in its last six games, and has only done so four times all season. 

Yes, Utah scores more points, but slower-paced teams have been able to limit its output. Not only did we see that in the first meeting between these two teams, but it also happened last Sunday, when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Jazz 105-98. 

Despite all of this, the total on this game is currently set at 223 or higher at nearly every sportsbook. That’s too high given the injuries, the history between these teams, and the way the Clippers play. I’m betting that Los Angeles dictates the pace of play yet again, so my money is on the Under.

My best bet: Under 223.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

Jazz vs Clippers spread analysis

The Clippers opened Monday’s game as 4.5-point favorites. However, the consensus line has dropped to Los Angeles -3, likely due to the continued uncertainty over George’s status. 

The Jazz have overperformed this year, and are 12-6 against the spread as a result. Utah is also 7-4 ATS on the road this year. Meanwhile, the Clippers are just 8-9 ATS and 3-6 ATS at home.

As I noted above, Utah has already beaten the Clippers in Los Angeles once this year. That will likely tempt a lot of bettors to back the Jazz again, banking on a similar game to the first encounter.

However, the Clippers are not the same team that lost that game two weeks ago. Not only have they played better over the past two weeks, winning five of seven since the loss to the Jazz, but they are also benefitting from the return of Kawhi Leonard. Los Angeles has won both games since Leonard came back from stiffness in his right knee.

I’m staying off of the spread and moneyline markets on this game mostly because I’m uncertain about the status of George. With Conley out for the Jazz, I would definitely like the Clippers to get revenge for the earlier home loss to Utah. However, if George is either not playing or limited by his calf, then that means there are too many unknowns to bet the spread.

Jazz vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this game opened at 221, and has risen to around 223 at most books as of noon on Monday.

As I noted in my analysis above, I think the best play here is the Under. The injury to Conley won’t cripple the Utah offense, but it should slow down the pace a bit, as the Jazz will be less likely to get quick buckets without their star point guard on the floor. 

In fact, this bet is almost entirely about pace. The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the league, averaging just 101.1 possessions per game. Los Angeles has been playing even slower as of late, with an average of just 97.6 possessions over its last three contests.

The flip side to this is that Utah plays relatively quickly, ranking eighth in the NBA in possessions per game. But not only does L.A. slow down opponents, but it also contests shots well — particularly on the interior. 

Once again, let’s remember that the Clippers held the Jazz to just 110 points even in a loss two weeks ago. If anything, this game should be played at a slower pace and with a better defensive effort from the Clippers thanks to the addition of Leonard. All signs point to the Under as the right play tonight.

Jazz vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Under is 17-4 in the Clippers’ last 21 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Clippers.

Jazz vs Clippers game info

Jazz vs Clippers key injuries

Pages related to this topic