Jazz vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Markkanen Carries Utah in South Beach

Neither the Miami Heat nor the Utah Jazz are assured of a playoff spot as the regular season enters its final month – and that just adds to the tension ahead of their matchup tonight.

The Heat are coming off a tough overtime loss to the Magic on Saturday night, despite Jimmy Butler’s 38-point effort – and Erik Spoelstra’s men (3-4 this month) are running out of time to show signs of consistency.

Like the hosts, the Jazz have made an uneven start to March but back-to-back victories over the Magic and Hornets have clawed Utah into the play-in spots again in the West (currently 10th). Talen Horton-Tucker stole the headlines against the Hornets with a season-high 37 points to go with 10 assists.

Find out more in our free Jazz vs Heat NBA picks and predictions for a deep dive on tonight’s contest.

Jazz vs Heat best odds

Jazz vs Heat picks and predictions

Whether the Utah Jazz end up in the play-in tournament or take a step back over the final four weeks of the season, Lauri Markkanen is poised to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award – and I expect him to continue to carry the Utah offense against the Miami Heat tonight. 

Even before all the February trade deadline moves, Markkanen was the go-to guy for Utah and a nightly threat to crack the 30-point mark. Now, with Malik Beasley and Mike Conley no longer in town, he has the greenest of green lights with less experienced teammates around him and plenty of extra touches up for grabs.

The big Finn has 64 field goal attempts to his name over his last three games, while taking nine 3-pointers in each of those outings. Even Jordan Clarkson’s possible return here shouldn’t put a dent in those numbers.

Who else can the visitors rely on for consistent scoring? Horton-Tucker got hot against the Hornets last time out but I suspect he'll have a tougher time getting good looks against Butler’s physical defense.

Markkanen poured in 33 points against the Mavericks and 31 points against the Magic last week before an eyebrow-raising 3-for-22 dud in Charlotte on Saturday. I see him taking that poor shooting night personally and making amends against the Heat. After all, he had 29 points against Miami earlier this season.

With Bam Adebayo likely to spend chunks of tonight’s game preoccupied with keeping rebound-machine Walker Kessler off the boards, Markkanen could walk into some favorable mismatches against an under-sized Miami frontcourt. I like his chances of hitting the Over on this points prop.

My best bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 25.5 points (-110)

Jazz vs Heat spread analysis

For all the focus on a rollercoaster season in South Beach, the Heat have at least been able to hang their hat on solid home form – they’re 22-13 at Miami-Dade Arena. But wins rarely come easily for Spoelstra’s men, as illustrated by their 25-42-2 ATS record overall.

In that sense, it’s a little surprising to see the line as high as 7.5 tonight. Miami has failed to cover the spread in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and they’re 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one day’s rest.

Kyle Lowry came off the bench on Saturday for his first action in over a month. He was -17 in 36 minutes and may sit out here as the Heat ease him back, but the hosts have no shortage of guard options to lean on.

By contrast, the Jazz are glaringly short on backcourt depth and could struggle to break down a stellar Heat defense if Clarkson is ruled out. Plus, the franchise is balancing the benefits of the play-in experience with the potential upside of a place in the draft lottery.

Jazz vs Heat Over/Under analysis

Though Miami boasts one of the league’s stingiest defenses, these teams served up a thriller in their prior meeting this season on New Year’s Eve. Tyler Herro’s buzzer-beater clinched a 126-123 victory for the Heat in Salt Lake City, but it’s hard to see a roadmap to a similar scoreline here.

That said, the Over has been a winner for both teams lately. It’s 4-0-1 in Utah’s last five games overall and 4-1 in Miami’s last five games against teams with a losing record (though the Jazz barely qualify at 33-35).

Just keep in mind that the visitors’ trade deadline deals stripped away some of their reliable scoring options – and Miami’s lengthy injury list could have a similar effect on its offensive performance here.

Jazz vs Heat betting trend to know

The Heat have repeatedly struggled to separate themselves from non-playoff teams. They’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Heat.

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