Jazz vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Early Burst Leads LA to Victory

The Los Angeles Lakers’ path to the playoffs will take some twists and turn on Easter Sunday, with L.A. at least locked into the play-in tournament. The Lakers have a window to jump as high as sixth place in the West but will need the chips to fall in their favor.

Step 1 is beating the Utah Jazz and bookies believe Los Angeles will do just that, installing L.A. as a 16.5-point home favorite this afternoon.

Utah nearly upset the Lakers’ postseason plans last week, taking L.A. to overtime and losing 135-133 as an 11-point home underdog. The Jazz roll out a thin lineup for this regular-season finale with a number of starters expected to sit out.

I break down this big spread as well as the Over/Under total and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Jazz at Lakers on April 9.

Jazz vs Lakers best odds

Jazz vs Lakers picks and predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers will be in must-win mode Sunday, at least for the first 24 minutes.

With a massive spread against the Utah Jazz and other key matchups taking place at the same time as this game, Los Angeles will be looking to jump out to a commanding lead and protect its top players in the second half – all while keeping an eye on the results in the Golden State game.

Even without that game script in play, Los Angeles has been great out of the gate the past few weeks. The Purple and Gold have put up plenty of points in the first two frames, averaging 61.4 first-half points in their last nine outings. Los Angeles had 68 points at the halftime break against Utah on April 4.

The Lakers hit the floor running in those first two quarters, boasting a 1H pace rating of 102.67 in that nine-game stretch and an offensive rating of 119.7 in those opening 24 minutes. That tempo ticks back in the second half, where L.A. owns a pace rating of 99.22 and averages 59.3 second-half points.

There are question marks around the status of Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Dennis Schroder (all questionable) and should they go, head coach Darvin Ham will be very careful about his standouts in the second half, especially if Los Angeles holds a comfortable lead.

The Jazz are a bad defensive team no matter the quarter and have allowed 60.2 average points in the first half over their last 10 games.

Utah is missing a number of starters for this Sunday matchup, namely 7-footers Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, who would have been protecting the paint against a Lakers offense that thrives on getting inside for points in the paint.

My best bet: Lakers first-half team total Over 61.5 (-115 at bet365)

Jazz vs Lakers spread analysis

With the Lakers still trying to avoid the play-in tournament or at least improve their seeding in the four-game playoff, oddsmakers installed Los Angeles between -16.5 and -17. The market consensus is sitting at -16.5 as of Sunday morning.

The Lakers need a win over Utah to at least finish seventh in the conference. A loss would sink them no lower than eighth. However, a win and a loss from Golden State (takes on Portland at the same time) would slide Los Angeles into sixth place.

That said, there are situations involving New Orleans and the L.A. Clippers that could also complicate the Lakers’ seeding, so there could be some scoreboard watching for these 3:30 p.m. ET tipoffs.

Los Angeles has been a different team since swapping out a good chunk of its roster at the trade deadline in February. The Lakers are 17-8 SU and 15-10 ATS since February 11 and have shown serious potential since getting LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell both in the lineup the past two weeks.

The Jazz continue to fight hard with many key pieces out of action to end the schedule. Utah is just 6-10 SU since March 7 but 12-4 ATS, including taking the Lakers to an extra period at home on April 4, despite names like Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler being out of action.

Utah is expected to sit both Markkanen and Kessler along with standouts Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton, and Kelly Olynyk for Sunday’s game. Los Angeles does have Davis, Schroder, and James listed as questionable with Russell listed as probable for the finale.

Jazz vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under hit the board as high as 233 points and had slimmed to a market consensus of 231.5, before seeing that total spike to 234 around 10 a.m. ET Sunday morning.

The total for the last matchup between these teams closed at 234 points on April 4, with the score going well over the total before the overtime period. However, the Jazz will be running thinner on talent today.

Utah won’t have much firepower on the floor with the bulk of its starters and major reserves sitting out Sunday afternoon. While the Jazz put up 122 points against the Lakers in regulation time on April 4, the team is averaging just under 115 points over its last eight games.

Defense continues to be the weakness of this Utah team. The Jazz struggled to slow opponents all season and have watched those late-season scratches lead to an average of 120.8 points against over the past month. That’s manifested itself in an 11-4-1 Over/Under count in those 16 games.

Los Angeles’ new-look lineup has become of the better defense clubs in the NBA since mid-February, boasting a conference-best defensive rating of 110.8 over the past 25 games.

The Lakers have complemented that stingy play with solid scoring since reuniting their “Big Three” of LeBron, AD, and Russell while getting added efforts from guard Austin Reaves in recent weeks.

Los Angeles enters the season finale on a seven-game Over run, putting up an average of just under 123 points in those contests, after going 6-12 O/U in the 18 games prior. That includes the April 4 matchup in Utah.

Jazz vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Over is 21-8-1 in Jazz's last 30 road games (72%). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Lakers.

Jazz vs Lakers game info

Jazz vs Lakers key injuries

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