Jazz vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Jazz Continue Hot Streak over the Mavs

After going 4-12 in January, the Utah Jazz (40-23, 4th in the West) have since gone 10-2 and are looking to keep the momentum they generated in February moving forward.

Heading into tonight's matchup as 1-point NBA betting underdogs, the Jazz take on the Dallas Mavericks (39-25, 5th in the West), winners of four straight and also sporting a 10-2 record in their last 12. Which team will keep the ball rolling as the final weeks of the season come to a close?

Find out now in our free NBA picks and predictions for the Jazz vs Mavericks matchup on Monday, March 7th.

Jazz vs Mavericks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Dallas opened as 1-point favorites and is still available at that number. The total opened at 218 and has since crept down to 216.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Jazz vs Mavericks predictions

• Prediction: Jazz +1 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216 (-110)
• Best bet: Jazz +1 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/07/2022 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jazz vs Mavericks game info

• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southwest, Sportsnet RockyMountain 

Jazz vs Mavericks betting preview

Key injuries

Jazz: Rudy Gobert C (Questionable).
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber F (Questionable), Jalen Brunson G (Out), Marquese Chriss F (Out), Frank Ntilikina G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dallas Mavericks possess the best record to the Under in the league at 39-23-2. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.

Jazz vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Utah Jazz have been a beacon of consistency for the last five years, for better and for worse. In four of the last five seasons, they've won 48 to 52 games during the regular season. but have no Western Conference Finals appearances to show for it.

It looks like Utah is on track to repeat the former, but the hope is to not repeat the latter. If they do, it's entirely possible that this season could be Quin Snyder's last as the head coach of the Jazz.

If you had asked Jazz fans in January the prospects of the Jazz in the postseason, you likely would have gotten some eye rolls as the team managed a horrendous 4-12 record amidst a slew of injuries and rumblings of roster rifts. But surprise surprise, once the Jazz got back Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, their fortunes drastically changed.

Mitchell obviously brings gravity as a scorer that opens things up for others as well, while Gobert's defensive and rebounding impact cannot be overstated. As a result, Jazz found plenty of success in February.

They will lock up with the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night, who find themselves on a hot streak of their own. In their last 12 games, the Mavs have wins over some of the league's best, including the likes of the Sixers, Heat, and Warriors (twice).

One of those two losses, however, was a five-point road loss at the hands of the Jazz a little over a week ago.

The Jazz won that game thanks to a massive rebounding (44 to 30), and free throw edge (22 attempts to 8). Unfortunately for Luka Doncic and the rest of Dallas, those edges aren't particularly ones the Mavs can amend in the short term.

The Mavericks are a below-average rebounding team, and have been particularly worse ever since Kristaps Porzingis exited the rotation (first due to injury, and then his trade at the deadline).

Porzingis played his last game with Dallas on January 29th, and since then the Mavs have ranked 23rd in overall rebounding rate (they ranked 16th prior to his departure, as reference).

With power forward Maxi Kleber day-to-day and having not played since last Tuesday, the Mavs could have exasperated struggles on the glass tonight.

Prediction: Jazz +1 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

As previously alluded to, a large factor of the Jazz's current improved stretch of play has been the massive jumps they've taken defensively.

They have played 8-4 to the Under since February, and that includes two games against the Rockets who regularly let teams pour it on and see games go over the total. The Jazz did exactly that, scoring 135 and 132 in their two games against Houston. So in reality, if we handwave those two games, the Jazz have played 8-2 to the Under since February.

Dallas in its first year with head coach Jason Kidd, who has a track record of successfully installing effective defenses in his first year, has played to the most Under-friendly record in the league at 39-23-2 (62.9%).

Even though these two teams went to the Over in their previous matchup, both teams shot 42%+ from deep which is firmly above Utah's 36.3% (6th in the league average and certainly Dallas' 34.7% (20th).

Prediction: Under 216 (-110)

Best bet

All things considered, it's hard to look at the body of work for these two teams within context and make an argument that Dallas is the better team. Utah has managed a better record thus far despite facing injuries across its lineup.

And while Luka Doncic is undeniably the biggest star in this game and is as good of a candidate as anyone to take over any singular game, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are All-Stars in their own right and have a much better supporting cast around them to boot.

With injuries across Dallas' rotation (Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, etc.) it stands to reason that the Mavs are drawing from a much thinner deck.  Utah also won the last game on the back of repeatable edges, whereas Dallas only managed to stay in the game on the heels of an uncharacteristically good shooting night from deep.

Expect Utah to be the team to build on their elevated play as of late.

Pick: Jazz +1 (-110)

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