Kings vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Siakam Leads Offensive Charge for Toronto

It feels like meteors are raining down on the Toronto Raptors right now. 

A little over two weeks ago, the team started getting healthy and strung together impressive wins over the Dallas Mavericks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Since then, the sky has started to fall. 

The Raps have dropped five of their last seven games straight up and against the spread, including back-to-back humiliating defeats at the hands of Orlando. 

NBA odds are expecting the Northern Dinos to bounce back, laying 5.0 points in tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Is that too much respect against this high-octane Sac-Town offense? I dig through the numbers and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Kings vs. Raptors.

Kings vs Raptors best odds

Kings vs Raptors picks and predictions

While showing flashes of potential, there have just been too many bumps in the road for the Raptors this season. 

Despite being an All-Star last year, something just looks off with Fred VanVleet, who is shooting a career-worst 32.6% from 3-point range. Reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes looks like he is going through some growing pains, and all the injuries haven’t helped.

The one thing that has worked for Toronto has been the play of Pascal Siakam. The All-NBA forward came flying out of the gates this season before a groin injury derailed his hot star, but he's picked up where he left off since coming back.

Siakam is averaging 24.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game this season. Over the last five, those numbers jump to 27 ppg and 7.6 apg — including dishing out at least seven dimes in each outing.

I’m expecting to see Siakam work the paint with his patented spin move in this matchup. The Kings rank 25th in the NBA in opponent points in the paint. If Sacramento's defense starts to collapse on Siakam, he’ll have the opportunity to kick the ball out with the hope his teammates can hit some open shots. Plus, the high tempo of the Kings’ offense will in turn mean more possessions for the Raptors. 

Pascal’s points and assists total is set at 32.5. He’s averaging 34.6 points and assists over the last five, and has gone Over this number three times in that stretch. I’m betting he makes it four of six tonight.

My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 32.5 points + assists (-120 at PointsBet)

Kings vs Raptors spread analysis

There’s no way of sugarcoating it. Those two losses in Orlando for the Raptors were ugly. It all culminated with a 99-point performance on Monday night where they shot just 6-for-25 from 3-point range. To make matters worse, their best two-play player and league leader in steals, O.G. Anunoby, is sidelined for the next little while with a hip injury.

That said, oddsmakers are still giving Toronto a decent amount of respect, making it 5-point chalk against the Kings. 

The two main reasons for that?

1) The Raps are playing at home where they are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS.

2) Sacramento is playing the second half of a back-to-back after falling to the Philadelphia 76ers 123-103 last night. 

While the Kings’ offense has stumbled a bit recently, De’Aaron Fox is back and healthy, and Domantas Sabonis is still a handful. With a bevy of shooters, Sacramento can heat up at any time — particularly since Toronto is without its best defender.

So, it’s just hard to have faith laying points with a Raptors team playing the way they have been lately and covering the spread just twice in their last seven games. For those reasons, I’m staying away from the spread.

Kings vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

While I don’t have much confidence in the spread, I think the total presents a solid betting opportunity. The total hit the board at 227 and the Over has been hammered, sending the number all the way up to 232.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. And that number is too high.

Outside of Siakam, the Raptors' offense has really struggled, particularly the half-court offense. Toronto generates a ton of points by creating turnovers and getting out and running in transition, but the half-court offense has been stagnant. The Raptors rank next to last in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point shooting percentage.

As a result, they have topped 110 points just three times over their last ten games and are averaging just 108.1 points per game over that stretch. And the Kings’ defense hasn’t been terrible, ranking 16th in defensive rating. 

Meanwhile, Sacramento's offense has gotten a lot of headlines early on — and for good reason. It ranks sixth in offensive rating and third in scoring but has hit a bit of an early-season wall. Over the last 10 games, the Kings rank 24th in offensive rating and 27th in 3-point shooting percentage.

They are going against an aggressive defense that will bring it every game no matter how badly the offense is struggling, ranking 10th in defensive rating and leading the league in steals.

And despite their struggles in the half court, it’s a good bet to think Raps head coach Nick Nurse will try and slow down the pace of this game and not let Sacramento get out and run. I like a play on the Under at this number.

Kings vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the Kings' last road games and 7-3 in the Raptors' last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Raptors.

Kings vs Raptors game info

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