What an incredible start to the season it's been for the 3-1 New York Knicks. Many analysts predicted a lottery-bound season, which still may be the case, but they've come out competitive in the early going. After a fluff schedule to begin the season, the real work begins tonight against the undefeated Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee is coming off a dominant 110-99 victory over the Brooklyn Nets, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing the world he's likely the best player in the NBA. It is a comfortable NBA odds favorite here, but with Jalen Brunson running the show for New York combined with a never-quit attitude, this could be a competitive tilt.
Find out with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Bucks vs. Knicks on Friday, October 28.
Knicks vs Bucks best odds
Knicks vs Bucks picks and predictions
One continuing trend for RJ Barrett in the early goings of the 2022-2023 season is the freedom he has on the court. Last year he attempted 17.1 shots per game, and this year he's at 18.3 while shooting a disastrous 37% from the field. Those aren't trends that bold well against the Milwaukee Bucks' mighty defense, currently ranked No. 1 in the entire NBA (98.4 defensive rating).
Barrett has had it rough against Milwaukee and this nucleus for the entirety of his career. In nine career games, he's averaging 17 points on 37% shooting. His last matchup against the Bucks may have been the worst game of his young career, as he scored two points in 20 minutes and failed to connect on any of his nine field goal attempts.
Milwaukee has most of the same nucleus that rattled Barrett last season, although star Khris Middleton will not be available. Barrett's shooting to start the season has been terrible, and it's bound to improve, but I wouldn't bank on that happening tonight.
As point guard Jalen Brunson continues to solidify himself within this Knicks offense, attempts could decrease for Barrett. The latter is already playing without the ball in his hands more often. Barrett is shooting 14% from 3-point range this season and will need those shots to land if he wants to cover here. That won't happen against this elite defense, only allowing teams to make 31.8% of their 3-point attempts.
My best bet: RJ Barrett Under 19.5 points (-105)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
Knicks vs Bucks spread analysis
The Knicks have been an offensive powerhouse to start the year, averaging 122.8 points, which ranks them Top 2 in the NBA. How are bettors supposed to take this early season success? Is this real, or is it just an early-season smokescreen?
The Bucks are favored in this one by anywhere between -6.5 and -7 across most sportsbooks. That number is banking on the Milwaukee defense to somewhat slow down the Knicks' offensive attack.
The Knicks aren't nearly as powerful an offensive juggernaut as their Top-2 points per game ranking might suggest. For instance, Memphis and Detroit are two of the three worst defenses in the NBA to start this season, with ratings of 121.6 and 118.5. The two teams the Knicks scored plenty of points against with ease. Facing off against the Bucks' defense is a far cry from any opponents New York has faced.
On the flip side, the Knicks — led by point guard Jalen Brunson — will have their hands full. This isn't an ideal matchup for the smaller Brunson, who it appears will have to be this team's engine if they want to be competitive throughout the season. Since entering the NBA in 2009, Jrue Holiday has been one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, often frustrating opponents with his high IQ, strength, and discipline on defense.
Another challenge for the Knicks will be the versatility of Mitchell Robinson. The 24-year-old big man has been a devotional on defense this season, but will he be comfortable traveling to the perimeter, where Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo will look to lure the excellent shot blocker out of the paint.
Milwaukee is the better team and presents several big matchup advantages that make it difficult for the Knicks to handle.
Knicks vs Bucks Over/Under analysis
When two teams playing two different basketball brands collide, I favor the better team's philosophy to take over. In this case, Milwaukee has been a defensive juggernaut clashing with the Knicks' offense, scoring in bunches. The Over/Under is currently set at 223.5, which suggests there will be a lot of points scored.
When the season is this young, there are still so many questions about what's real and what's not, and it's fair to question the legitimacy of a Knicks offense overachieving. Their starting frontcourt is struggling from deep, making 9 out of their 41 3-point attempts this season. Combine that with Milwaukee still working as an overall unit to find its offensive continuity without Middleton, and the Under looks very tempting.
The Bucks have held the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets to under 100 points this season. Look for the Knicks' offense to begin to balance back into where they probably should be, which is more middle of the pack.
Knicks vs Bucks betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Bucks.
Knicks vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, October 28, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
