Knicks vs Heat Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Vincent Goes Off Again?

The NBA playoff series between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat heads to Florida for Game 3 on Saturday. This Eastern Conference semifinals matchup is all tied up at one game apiece after the Knicks took advantage of Jimmy Butler's absence on Tuesday to win 111-105.

Butler is listed as questionable but expected to play today and NBA betting lines opened with Miami as a 4.5-point favorite with the Over/Under at 208.5. Here are my best free Knicks vs. Heat NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 on May 6.

Knicks vs Heat Game 3 best odds

Knicks vs Heat Game 3 picks and predictions

Kyle Lowry clearly isn't the All-Star he used to be, but Gabe Vincent has stepped up in the last week after putting up pedestrian numbers for most of the Heat's season. Vincent is thriving with increased playing time and has dropped at least 20 points in three straight contests.

Extremely high shooting percentages can be tough to sustain long-term, but Vincent hasn't been extraordinarily efficient and is instead averaging 18.7 field goal attempts per game during that span. He's willing to take big shots for a Miami team that has missed Tyler Herro and has Bam Adebayo looking passive on offense.

The Knicks struggled to defend the arc during the regular season ranking 27th in the league in 3-pointers allowed per game. That's bad news against Vincent, who has gone 13-36 from long range over the last three contests. 

As dynamic as New York point guard Jalen Brunson is on offense he can be a liability defensively. While Immanuel Quickley is a better defender, he logged just nine minutes in Game 2 because he's been a non-factor when the Knicks have the ball.

With Jimmy Butler listed as questionable but expected to play, expect the Knicks to focus on stopping him, giving Vincent plenty of scoring opportunities in a supporting role.  

My best bet: Gabe Vincent Over 13.5 points (-110)

Knicks vs Heat same-game parlay

Gabe Vincent Over 13.5 points (-105)

Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 rebounds (-125)

Knicks team total  Over 102.5 points (-120)

+525 at DraftKings

Since Game 2 took place on Tuesday, Butler has enjoyed five days of rest and Miami will need him carry the team once again. Jimmy Buckets always ramps up his play in the postseason, and while totaling 98 points in Games 4 and 5 against the Bucks got the most attention, he stuffs the stat sheet in other ways.

Butler has grabbed at least eight boards in three consecutive games and pulled down 11 rebounds in Game 1 of this series.

While I expect Butler and Vincent to have offensive success for the Heat, I also think the Knicks will go Over their low team total of 102.5. Miami has some strong defensive pieces but they've been playing at a faster tempo in the playoffs and Vincent and Max Strus are weak links.

Don't forget that the Knicks had the fourth-best offensive rating in the league during the regular season and Brunson, Julius Randle, and R.J. Barrett give them a trio of dangerous scorers.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Knicks vs Heat Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

While Butler's absence was a big reason the Heat fell in Game 2, the Knicks were without Randle, their leading scorer, in Game 1 when they lost 108-101. Randle returned to the lineup on Tuesday and dropped 25 points with 12 boards and eight assists. 

The Knicks were 4-point faves at home with Randle questionable for Game 1 and they were 10-point chalk with Butler ruled out for Game 2. Even with Butler trending towards playing in Game 3 and the home-court advantage shifting to Miami, a 14.5-point swing on the spread seems extreme. 

The Knicks finished the regular season with the seventh-best net rating in the NBA (+2.8) but their 47-35 record was good for just the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. They upset the Cavaliers in the opening round and made it look easy going 4-1 straight up and against the spread

The Heat finished 21st in the league in net rating and needed to beat the Bulls for the final play-in spot in the East. They went on to shock the top-seeded Bucks in the first round knocking them out in five games. Although Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple of those contests Miami still managed to beat Milwaukee in Games 4 and 5 with him back in the lineup. 

The total opened at 208.5 and both of the previous contests went just Over that number despite Randle missing Game 1 and Butler sitting out Game 2. 

The Knicks were more efficient on offense than defense during the regular season. However, they stepped up their D in the first round, holding the Cavs to just 94.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting. 

The Heat played at the second-slowest pace in the league during the regular season (96.8) but that has ticked up to 99.3 in the playoffs. They filled up the hoop in the opening round averaging 124 ppg but were extremely reliant on Butler to get buckets. 

Knicks vs Heat betting trend to know

The Knicks are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.

Knicks vs Heat Game 3 game info

Knicks vs Heat Game 3 key injuries

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