Knicks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Knicks Turn the Heat Up on Miami

It will be interesting to see how the Miami Heat will respond after an embarrassing loss to a shell of a Golden State Warriors team that included a very public blow-up on the bench between Jimmy Butler and assistant coach Udonis Haslem.

Can the Heat put that behind them in time to take on the New York Knicks Friday night? And will they be able to focus enough to cover a healthy amount of home chalk?

Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Heat on March 25.

Knicks vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Heat opened this Eastern Conference clash as 5.5-point home favorites and bettors are expecting a bounce back from them as the line has moved all the way to 7.5. The total hit the board at 215.5 and hasn’t seen much action as of Friday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Knicks vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Knicks +7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 215.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 215.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Knicks vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, MSG

Knicks vs Heat betting preview

Key injuries

Knicks: Julius Randle PF (Questionable), Mitchell Robinson C (Questionable), Nerlens Noel C (Out), Derrick Rose PG (Out).
Heat: Jimmy Butler SF (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Questionable), Duncan Robinson SG (Questionable), P.J. Tucker PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Knicks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.

Knicks vs Heat picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Heat were the talk of the NBA after their bench kerfuffle. Obviously, the whole team was frustrated as they were getting worked by the Warriors' B Team, in a game where they were nearly double-digit favorites.

But things like this happen in the NBA from time to time and Jimmy Butler is an ultra-competitive guy, and to be that is to, frankly, be a jerk sometimes. The Heat, who currently sit in first place in the Eastern Conference, don’t want to give up any more ground to the Bucks, 76ers, and Celtics, and coughing up a gimmie like that is never good.

But this is a balanced team that plays strong defense and is well-coached. They should be able to bounce back. That said, the Heat offense has hit a rough patch, and ranks 24th in offensive rating over a five-game stretch where they are 0-5 ATS. 

Now, they’ll face a Knicks team that has obviously been a disappointment this season but has shown a scrappy nature of late, going 6-4 straight up and leading the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games. 

RJ Barrett has played very well for the Knicks over that stretch, averaging 25.1 points with 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He looks like one of the few healthy players heading into this game and could be a handful against a Heat team with a long list on the injury report.

Butler, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson are all questionable for the Heat, but Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are also saddled with that designation for this matchup as of Friday afternoon, so there is still a lot up in the air.

That said, both teams are playing good defense and there is a relatively low total, so taking a big number with the underdog Knicks seems to be the way to go.

Prediction: Knicks +7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

At 215.5, the total looks ripe for the picking in this matchup.

For starters, as noted, the Heat offense is struggling. Not only do they rank 24th in offensive rating over their last five games, but they also rank 24th in effective field goal percentage and are putting up just 107.8 points per contest. 

Now, they play a Knicks defense that is playing as well as anyone at the moment. They rank first in defensive rating and second in scoring defense over their last 10 games, giving up just 103.9 points per contest.

But the Knicks have struggled on the other end of the floor all season long, ranking 24th in offensive rating for the season, putting up just 106.3 points per game, and are facing a Heat team that ranks fourth in defensive rating. 

The Heat may have their issues but the effort on the defensive end of the floor is always apparent. Bet on this one to be a defensive battle and slip Under the total.

Prediction: Under 215.5 (-110)

Best bet

I would bet Under 215.5 even if all of the guys who are questionable to play in this game are able to suit up. So, if there is a chance any of them miss out, it looks like there is value in this number.

The way these teams are trending right now, it would be surprising if they suddenly put on some sort of offensive explosion here. And when you add in the fact the Knicks and Heat rank 27th and 28th, respectively, when it comes to pace, this game is the perfect recipe for the Under.

Pick: Under 215.5 (-110)

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