Lakers vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Harris Steps Up for Mediocre Sixers

It’s a veritable clash of the titans with Anthony Davis on the road facing off against Joel Embiid on Friday, December 9. Both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers are on the heels of dispiriting losses and will be hoping to ride their talented bigs to a much-needed victory. 

Our NBA betting picks and predictions for Lakers vs. 76ers look outside the starry lineups of both teams, finding value in the workman-like production of Philadelphia forward Tobias Harris. Read ahead out more.

Lakers vs 76ers best odds

Lakers vs 76ers picks and predictions

Once touted as the missing piece, Tobias Harris is now the forgotten man in Philadelphia. To hear some tell it, the 76ers brass chose Harris over retaining Jimmy Butler. At this point, however, he’s probably the most frequent addition to the trade machine than anyone save John Collins.

And yet he’s still here, still producing, and still refining his game. He’s made serious strides as a defender starting since last year's playoff series against the Toronto Raptors and is shifting his offense to give Philadelphia the best chance to win.

Across 11 seasons, he’s gone from bit player, to featured role player, to pseudo-No. 1 option, and now he’s settled again into a supplementary role. That’s played out in his shot profile as well, currently taking more catch-and-shoot threes than at any previous prior of his career. Attempting 5.4 threes per game would be a career high if he sustains it for a whole season, as would his stellar 41.5% hit rate.

It’s fairly rare you get a high-value line from a star player unless books miss an important piece of context. The margins are often more favorable with players a step down the ladder, as they are tonight with Harris.

Harris has averaged 20 ppg over his last five and would have eclipsed this line in seven of his last eight games. The only time he would have failed to do so was in last Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers because he was forced to exit early due to illness.

The only reason this line can be justified this low is probably that there’s some thinking James Harden’s full return to the lineup will eat into Harris’ usage. But Harden, particularly recovering from his own foot injury, is much more likely to take on a spot-up shooter and facilitator role until he gets his wind under him. For now, Harden’s return will open even more opportunities for Harris, not the opposite.

My best bet: Tobias Harris Over 17.5 points (-104)

Lakers vs 76ers spread analysis

Neither of these squads has exactly covered themselves in glory recently, each exposing critical flaws in disappointing performances in a series of previous games. The 76ers losing to the lowly Houston Rockets is bad enough, but they also lost to the non-competitive Cleveland Cavaliers the game before that.

The Lakers are the definition of a top-heavy team, and it’s not clear what shape their top two players are going to be in by Friday’s tip. Anthony Davis exited early against the Cavaliers on Tuesday after trying to soldier on through a non-Covid illness, and LeBron James is also listed as probable with a nagging ankle issue. Neither played in L.A.'s last game against the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday.

The Lakers have largely stunk it up on the road against quality competition. They’re just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record.

It’s not all doom and gloom for L.A. though. It's outperformed the spread by an average of +4.5 points over its last eight games per Cleaning the Glass. 

Still, the Lakers' relentless desire to play bully ball and score inside hasn’t fared too well against the Joel Embiid-led Sixers in recent years. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Philadelphia and 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. Philly has also been dominant at home this season, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games. I’d lean toward the Sixers at -3.5.

Lakers vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

There were bound to be some growing pains in reintegrating James Harden into the lineup after a month off the floor, but his first game back was revealing. The 76ers were embarrassed on the road in Houston, allowing 123 points in regulation to the fifth-worst offense in the NBA.

They’d adopted a defense-first identity in Harden’s absence that’s seen them rise all the way to the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA, but that identity didn’t survive even one game upon Harden’s return.

Harden remains a poor defender and having him as a weak link on that end gives the Lakers some place to attack. In turn, he significantly juices the 76ers offense, and the Harden-and-Embiid pick and roll remains one of the league's single most devastating plays. The Over is also 4-1 in L.A.'s last five. All of that earns a total of 225.

I’d still lean Under. There are very few teams who can score efficiently in volume if completely denied the paint and these two are not among them. The Lakers generate more of their shots at the rim than any other team in the NBA. Shut the tap off on that and they’re praying that Patrick Beverley shoots better than his average of 22% from the perimeter.

Though not as singularly reliant on scoring at the rim, Philly generates a good deal of its offense from the painted area. Davis is about as good a cover as you can get for Embiid posting up to take a fade away from 12 feet and out.

If Embiid and Davis both play, I believe the paint is just going to be too locked down to see the Over at 225. 

Lakers vs 76ers betting trend to know

76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. 76ers.

Lakers vs 76ers game info

Lakers vs 76ers key injuries

Pages related to this topic