Lakers vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Backing Bucks Back Home

A road trip can often be a quick fix for a struggling team, as it gives it a chance to break away from the distractions of home and the local media buzz, and simply focus on basketball. 

The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping for just that when they tip off a five-game eastern road swing against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The NBA betting odds have the Lakers as 7.5-point road underdogs inside Fiserv Forum after a bumpy start to the season and playing without LeBron James, who isn’t expected back until Friday.  

Here are our NBA free picks and predictions for Lakers at Bucks on November 17.

Lakers vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Milwaukee opened as big as 9-point home chalk for Wednesday’s matchup with L.A. and that spread was quickly bet down as low as -7.5 early Wednesday morning. The total for this non-conference clash between the past two NBA champions opened at 211.5 points and has climbed to 213.5 with early action on the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lakers vs Bucks predictions

• Milwaukee -7.5 (-110)
• Over 213.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Davis Over 35.5 Pts+Rebs (-115)

Predictions made on 11/17/2021 at 9:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lakers vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, November 17, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Lakers vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Lakers: LeBron James F (Out), Anthony Davis F (Probable), Kris Nunn G (Out), Trevor Ariza F (Out), Austin Reaves G (Out)
Bucks: Khris Middleton F (Probable), George Hill G (Questionable), Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo G (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Since 2018-19, Los Angeles is 13-26-1 ATS in non-conference road games (33.8%). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Bucks.

Lakers vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Much like the Lakers trying to get right on the road after losing two of their last three outings, the Bucks welcome a return to Milwaukee after closing a five-game away swing with back-to-back losses. And it’s not just a return to the role of hosts that should help the Bucks, but also the return of all-star forward Khris Middleton, who has been out with COVID-19 for the past eight games.

Middleton is a matchup nightmare for an L.A. defense struggling to maintain its identity as the league’s elite stopper. The 6-foot-7 small forward, who is averaging 20 points and 4.5 assists, would normally draw LeBron as a check but now exploits an L.A. lineup thin in defensive grit and size at the swing position. 

Middleton’s range and versatility is a shot in the arm for a Milwaukee offense putting up only 104.2 points per home game this season. The Bucks, normally among the league’s top home-court producers, are shooting just 31.5 percent from 3-point range inside Fiserv Forum, but have an opportunity to improve that long-range success against L.A.

The Lakers, who rank an uncharacteristic 15th in defensive rating, have done a piss-poor job getting their heels above the 3-point arc and defending the triple. They allowed foes to knock down an average of 14.3 3-pointers over the past three games on better than 40 percent shooting from deep, including a 15-for-34 night (44%) from the Chicago Bulls shooters Monday. 

Los Angeles just doesn’t have the outside chops to counter those threes, should the Bucks get hot, firing at a 28.8 percent clip over the last three outings and picking only 31.7 percent of its total offensive output from beyond the arc. That rate sinks to 25.5 percent on the road.

Prediction: Milwaukee -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Lakers do bring one of the fastest offensive paces in the NBA to Milwaukee, fueling a transition attack ranked fourth with an average of 23.5 points produced. There will be opportunities to get out and run as the Bucks shoot their way back into form, grabbing long rebounds and putting the defense on its heels. 

Milwaukee gives up just 17.8 points in transition per game but hasn’t faced a tempo like this since allowing 137 points to Miami in the second game of the schedule. On the season, the Bucks do allow transition attacks to shoot almost 54 percent from the floor along with a scoring frequency of 51.4 percent. 

Neither team is playing up to last season’s stingy standards, when L.A. and Milwaukee ranked No. 1 and No. 10 in defensive rating respectively. And while championships are built on defense, tonight’s contest will be a far cry from that title-winning calibre.

Prediction: Over 213.5 (-110)

Best bet

The matchup of the night sees Anthony Davis battling Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Davis is expected to play through a sore thumb and has plenty to prove after getting tossed from Los Angeles’ loss to Chicago on Monday. 

Davis leads L.A. in rebounding with nearly 11 boards and night and has scored almost 24 points per contest in November. He’s facing a points + rebounds total of 35.5 versus the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee has struggled to reel in rebounds, boasting a rebound rate of just 48.3 percent – fifth-lowest in the league – and has given up 47.3 points in the paint per game to foes (22nd). The Bucks' interior defense isn’t what it used to be, allowing opponents to knock down 62 percent of looks at the basketball and 45 percent from mid-range. 

Davis played only 28 minutes versus the Bulls before getting ejected, so he should have fresh legs for this road outing, and posted 34 points and 15 boards against San Antonio the game prior. 

Pick: Anthony Davis Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds (-115)

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