Lakers vs Bulls Picks and Predictions: Lakers Can't Weather Davis' Loss

Welcome to December 2021, where betting on sports is more a matter of hawk-eyeing health-and-safety updates than having a concrete grasp of a team's tendencies. 

The NBA, like all sports, has been consumed by this pandemic wave, and the Chicago Bulls were Patient Zero for the latest outbreak, forcing the league's only cancellations so far earlier this week. 

But what's left of their roster is back at it Sunday, hosting the Los Angeles Lakers. Find out how to navigate this minefield with our Lakers vs Bulls NBA picks and predictions for December 19. 

Lakers vs Bulls odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

After much availability uncertainty, this line opened at Bulls -4.5 late Saturday night. It's seen no movement, however, the total has been bet down from 215.5 to 213.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lakers vs Bulls predictions

• Prediction: Chicago -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Chicago 1H -3 (-115)

Predictions made on 12/19/2021 at 7:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lakers vs Bulls game info

• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, December 19, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SNLA, NBCS-CHI

Lakers vs Bulls betting preview

Injuries

Lakers: Anthony Davis (Out), Malik Monk SG (Out), Austin Reaves SG (Out), Avery Bradley SG (Out), Dwight Howard C (Out), Talen Horton-Tucker SG (Out), Kendrick Nunn SG (Out), Trevor Ariza Sf (Out). 
Bulls: Zach LaVine SG (Out), Alize Johnson PF (Out), Troy Brown Jr. SF (Out), Stanley Johnson SF (Out), Ayo Dosunmu PG (Out), Derrick Jones Jr SF (Out), Matt Thomas PG (Out), Patrick Williams F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Under is 6-0 in Lakers' last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Bulls.

Lakers vs Bulls picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Man, I genuinely feel like I'm writing a football preview after running through that injury list. 

Regular bettors are probably aware this week, but we can't stress it enough: be diligent with the inactives and make sure you're aware of exactly who is and isn't playing before locking in a bet. It changes literally by the hour. 

So, where does that leave us for this matchup? The Lakers have been horribly inconsistent and mostly just underwhelming this season. Anthony Davis is out several weeks after injuring himself twice in Friday night's game. Russell Westbrook has (predictably) alternated between inspiring awe and inducing face-palms. LeBron has been LeBron, but as we've seen over the past two weeks, that carries a team this dysfunctional only so far.

While they're down Zach LaVine, the Bulls still maintain the bulk of their core competency: perimeter defense. Chicago's the NBA's eighth-rated team defensively and can smother an opponent like L.A. that typically attacks from the outside-in. 

DeMar DeRozan is clear of COVID protocol and will suit up. He's having an All-NBA caliber season and, along with Nikola Vucevic and Lonzo Ball, can buoy this offense even with LaVine sidelined. In fact, for all their injuries, the Bulls still have five of their top-six guys.

The Lakers have risen to the NBA's No. 10 defensive rating, but will be without their best defender in Davis, as well as one of their better perimeter stoppers in Avery Bradley. LeBron will need to put in more work on D out of mere necessity and, even in a down year, the Lakers will have no answer on the block for Nikola Vucevic. 

Davis' loss is huge for a team as maligned and inconsistent as the Lakers, who were blown out by the sub-.500 Timberwolves their last time out. Chicago can still execute most of its game plan without LaVine (especially on defense, and especially with DeRozan healthy), so, try as LeBron might to keep the Lakers within striking distance, it's tough to back them here.

Prediction: Chicago -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Lakers are the league's fastest and eighth-highest-scoring team, but most of those metrics can go out the window in the NBA's current climate. 

As my colleague, Douglas Farmer pointed out (and I completely agree), the NBA can likely expect a slowing of pace in the next few weeks. With players in-and-out of protocol, missing practice, stressed out, and tired, we're less likely to see track meets, and more likely to see rosters just try and survive intact.

I'll double down on that theory by suggesting same effect on offensive efficiency. Most NBA rotations will now feature hastily-inserted — and by default, often worse — players with absolutely no teammate synergy. With two rosters ravaged by COVID, that certainly applies here. 

To boot, the Lakers and Bulls are both Top-10 defensive teams and both missing Top-15 scorers. The gamescript would certainly suggest a slowing of the pace, and the Lakers' wavering ability to execute on offense doesn't entice us to have faith in an Over here.

Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Lakers have followed a bit of a trend with slow starts this year: Coast early while AD listlessly tosses up jumpers, let Westbrook do some Westbrook shit, generally act like they can afford to make mistakes.

Then LeBron yells at everyone in the locker room and comes out with more of a handprint on the second half. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. 

But back to the first half. Per EV analytics, the Lakers have the NBA's single lowest ROI against first-half spreads, at 10-18-2 on the season for -29.95%. 

The Bulls definitely have a rest edge, having not played all week, but they've also probably seen limited court time, so that angle's likely close to a wash. 

This pick is all about fading the league's worst first-half ATS team, especially on the road, where their mark nosedives to 3-9-1 for a -48.6% ROI.

Pick: Chicago 1H -3 (-115)

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