Lakers vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: By George, I Think He's Got It!

Neither of Los Angeles' NBA teams is thrilled about its start to the 2022-23 season.

While the L.A. Clippers are merely dealing with the nebulous long-term health of their franchise player, their cross-hall neighbor Lakers are 14th in the West at 2-8, in the midst of a full-on existential crisis in the twilight of LeBron James' legendary career. 

As the two lock horns for the second time this season, get all your betting info with our Lakers vs. Clippers NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 9. 

Lakers vs Clippers best odds

Lakers vs Clippers picks and predictions

The intent while awaiting the maddeningly-delayed release of today's player props was to fire on Paul George's points + rebounds + assists market if some subdued recent performances in the latter two categories created some deflation. But with that total sitting at 38.5 at most books, and even 39.5 in some spots, there's likely more value in PG's straight-up points market. 

Tonight's George total sits at 26.5, a number he's topped in four of the past five games, falling short by a single point against Cleveland's second-league-wide defense in the lone outlier. 

We're still getting a slightly modest number here because PG started the season in a pretty bad funk, cracking the 20-point plateau just once in his first five games and shooting a paltry 38% from the field in that span.

But George is a proven commodity as a versatile scorer, and with Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely, this is very much his team. He's in an utter groove (31 ppg on almost 55% in last five games) and there's absolutely nothing about the way the Lakers are playing right now to suggest they'll suddenly slow him down. 

PG can get it going in the midrange along with the best in the business, and the Lakers not only give up the NBA's fifth-most shots from 15-19 feet, but allow the fifth-highest opponent shooting percentage in that zone.

If George is able to get his jumper going, it can stiffen coverage, enabling him to get to the rim at ease, especially in patented Clippers small-ball sets where Anthony Davis is drawn away from the rim.

Even better, the Lakers play at the NBA's fastest pace, so we're more likely to see some extra possessions for stat padding compared to the typical Clippers outing. 

Especially in a cross-town rivalry game, this would be a strange spot for PG to suddenly cool off.  

My best bet: Paul George Over 26.5 points (-110)

Lakers vs Clippers spread analysis

After inspiring wins over the Nuggets and Pelicans that could've served as turning points in their season, the Lakers turned around and promptly dropped three straight by a combined 51 points. That 0-5 start might not have just been bad variance. 

The Lakers' 2-8 ATS mark mirrors their straight-up record, and while the Clippers aren't much better at 4-7, they don't quite inspire the same cringe-worthy lack of confidence as their opponents. 

A spread of 4.5 points seems generous to the Lakers, especially for a team in a huge market with several mega-stars (see "Yankee Tax" in our Sports Betting Glossary), let alone one that's been grossly underperforming.

But the simple reality is that this is a flawed basketball team, whose three stars complement each other about as poorly as humanly possible. Instead of creating space with shooters around LeBron James, the Lakers have fielded a unit in which LeBron himself is arguably the best shooter, with several avid brick-layers flanking him. 

The net result (or lack thereof to use a bad basketball pun) is an NBA-worst 29.1% 3-point clip, contributing to an also-league-worst offensive rating. The Clips force the league's seventh-most opponent threes and have the type of rangy, switch-heavy defense (ranked fourth overall) that can thwart most Lakers penetration. 

LAL is merely an average defensive unit (12th in D-rating), and the Clippers have the personnel to get buckets on a spaced floor with Davis drawn away from the rim. And should they need to go big, they can test Davis inside, with Ivica Zubac playing great to start the season, and among the qualifying leaders in offensive rebound rate.

The Clips beat this spread, winning by six against the Lake Show in their season opener, despite George shooting 4-for-12, Norman Powell shooting 2-for-8, and Kawhi Leonard playing just 21 minutes. While Leonard is now nebulously absent again, Powell has begun shooting himself back in a rhythm (57% from the field this month) and PG has been a beast in November. 

Meanwhile, while all the Lakers have done is prove themselves to be more and more of a junkyard blaze, they're also at their utter floor, which makes them dangerous to blindly fade while also impossible to back. I'm not confident enough to make this a pick, but my lean is definitely towards the Clippers. 

Lakers vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

As you may have gathered from the above paragraphs, the Lakers offense is Edmonton-cold as a default, and runs into a pretty brutal matchup against the Clippers.

While the "away" side is normally content to barf up low-quality attempts early in the shot clock (looking at you, Russell Westbrook), it may have to work a bit harder against a unit that will pressure both on the perimeter and at the rim. The Lakers have been bleeding points lately (four of their last five games have gone north of 230), but this game's tempo should be more deliberate than they're used to.

The first meeting between these two yielded a measly 200 points back on Oct 20, and while this outcome won't sink any lower than that, it's more telling of tonight's forecast than recent Lakers results.

The Clippers, for their part, have only topped tonight's 220 total in one of their past six games: a 236-point shootout against Cleveland that looks very much like an outlier given what we know about those two sides (both Top-4 defenses, both Bottom-10 paces).

LAC wins games with its defense, and it won't have to exert a ton of effort to keep a legendarily poor-shooting team down. The lean's with the Under here.  

Lakers vs Clippers betting trend to know

Lakers are 2-8 ATS on the season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Clippers.

Lakers vs Clippers game info

Lakers vs Clippers key injuries

Pages related to this topic