Lakers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Herro, Heat Stay Hot Against Shorthanded Lakers

Amidst another untimely Anthony Davis injury, the Los Angeles Lakers (14-20) are looking to stay afloat in the Western Conference playoff picture. They snapped a four-game losing streak with a 129-110 win over the Magic, sneakily one of the league's hottest teams as of late.

Tonight, they will make the short trip to face the Miami Heat (17-17) for their third game of a five-game road trip and will look to beat another hot team with the Heat winning five of their last seven.

Reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro will look to finish a strong December that saw him average 24.3 points per game and 43.8% 3-point shooting.

NBA odds currently have Herro and the Heat as 8-point home chalk. Can they stay hot from deep and cover against a shallow Lakers roster on a back-to-back... or will the Lakers rise to the challenge and steal a win in Miami?

Continue reading for my best free NBA picks and analysis of the Lakers vs. Heat matchup on Wednesday, December 28th.

Lakers vs Heat best odds

Lakers vs Heat picks and predictions

Make no mistake about it, the NBA is an incredibly complex and nuanced league. But sometimes, results can simply drastically improve just by having your best players playing their best basketball.

Tyler Herro, in the eyes of the Miami Heat front office, was one of those high-impact players with that capability and that's exactly why they extended the reigning Sixth Man of the Year to a four-year, $130-million contract extension in October.

But results had been poor through the first two months of that deal, and there was immediate buyer's remorse coming from Heat fans. Through November, Herro was averaging fewer points (18.4 ppg) on higher usage and less efficiency (33.7% on three) than last year — and as a result, the Heat were sitting under .500 heading into December and there was concern about their viability as a contender.

But, as is the case with most overreactions to small samples in the NBA, the concerns were overstated. In December, Herro has averaged 24.3 points on 43.8% shooting from deep while further increasing his 3-point volume (10.1 3PA), and chipping in 5.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists as well.

Miami now stands an even 17-17, after winning five of its last seven games, and the outlook is much better.

Herro isn't the only marked improvement either. The Heat have a 108.9 defensive rating during this current seven-game stretch, the fifth-best mark in the league, while allowing just 104.7 ppg — a mark that would firmly be the best in the league over the course of a full season (Cleveland leads the league currently at 105.5 ppg).

That defense will be put to the test against a Los Angeles Lakers team that, despite having lost four of its last five, has put up some good offensive performances. The Lakers have averaged 123.5 ppg over their last four games, and in that (admittedly small) sample, their 118.7 offensive rating ranks sixth-best in the league.

So it has actually been the absence of Anthony Davis' defensive presence that has caused Los Angeles much of its troubles since the foot injury he sustained on December 16. L.A.'s 123.2 defensive rating since then ranks third-worst in the league and in the last five games alone, it has allowed a monstrous 126.4 points per night.

That bodes well for a Miami Heat team that has struggled offensively this year, ranking among the Bottom 5 on the year in offensive rating. The Heat are a team that leans heavily into long-developing mid-court sets, ranking Bottom 3 in pace as well, and outside of LeBron James (also questionable tonight), there are arguably no other notable plus defenders in those situations on the Lakers roster.

Miami should be able to slowly but surely carve up a big enough lead to sustain a cover tonight.

My best bet: Heat -8 (-110)

Lakers vs Heat spread analysis

The spread opened with the Heat favored by eight and books are split between that number and a small move up to -8.5.

The Lakers are 13-21 ATS this year, good for the third-worst record in the league. Despite that ledger, their average +1.0 margin against the spread is actually above average and they are just one of two teams with a losing spread record with a positive average margin.

As road underdogs, they are 4-12 ATS, which is again good for the third-worst mark. They have covered just once in their last five and they have gone 1-5 ATS on spreads of +8 or larger this year.

Miami is 11-21-2 ATS, sporting the lowest cover rate of the season (34.4%). As home favorites, they have an ugly 3-12-1 record against the number. They have also failed to capitalize on rest advantages, going 1-7 in that split.

Lakers vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 224 and has since climbed to 227 or 227.5 across the market.

Los Angeles has played 21-13 to the Over (61.8%) this season, the highest mark in the league. They have gone 4-0 that way on back-to-backs this year and have also gone 11-5 to the Over as road underdogs.

The Lakers have also cashed the Over in five straight and in 12 of their last 15.

The Heat have gone an even 17-17 on totals, but have gone 10-6 to the Over as home favorites. They have gone Under in five of their last seven, but have also only played in four totals at or above tonight's number (and split those four games). 

The pace discrepancy will be one of the more intriguing elements of this matchup, with the Lakers ranking second in pace and the Heat ranking 28th.

Both teams are also above average when it comes to limiting second opportunities, with the Heat ranking ninth in offensive rebounding rate allowed and the Lakers ranking 13th, while these clubs are also above average at taking care of the ball, with Los Angeles ranking ninth in turnover rate and the Heat sitting 12th.

Lakers vs Heat betting trend to know

The Lakers have gone 1-5 ATS this year as underdogs of 8+ points. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.

Lakers vs Heat game info

Lakers vs Heat key injuries

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