It's Christmas Day on Sunday which means plenty of NBA betting action: including a Western Conference showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks.
Neither squad has impressed this season going a combined 23-40-2 against the spread, but it should be an exciting battle between two of the biggest names in basketball with Luka Doncic facing off against LeBron James.
Here are my best NBA betting picks and predictions for the Lakers vs. Mavericks on December 25.
Lakers vs Mavericks best odds
Lakers vs Mavericks picks and predictions
The Lakers play at a blazing-fast tempo and that combined with the loss of Anthony Davis has made them extremely vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor.
Davis might be the most valuable defender in the NBA, and his ability to defend the pick-and-roll, switch, contest shots at the rim, and clean the glass, has a massive impact on the entire team.
Davis has been out with a foot injury since last Friday, and the Lakers have surrendered at least 130 points in three-straight games without him. The three-time NBA blocks leader has missed seven games this season and the Lakers have allowed a whopping 127.1 points per game in those contests.
The Mavericks play at a much slower pace and average a modest 111 ppg, but they're more than capable of going off against up-tempo teams that don't defend very well.
They scored 130 points against Portland last Friday and put up 121 points vs. Oklahoma City last Monday. Take the Over on their team total.
My best bet: Mavericks team total Over 117.5 (-120 at bet365)
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Lakers vs Mavericks spread analysis
The Mavericks are back at home after a four-game road trip that saw them win their last two contests. They are coming off a 112-106 win against the Rockets where Luka Doncic carried the team with 50 points and 10 assists.
Doncic is an MVP candidate and is second in the league in scoring (32.8 ppg) and fourth in assists (8.7 apg) while also leading Dallas with 8.3 rpg.
However, Dallas needs to give him some help on offense with Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Tim Hardaway Jr. tending to be very inconsistent with their contributions.
The Mavs have been solid on the other end of the floor and are tied for 13th in defensive rating (112.3) but they have regressed from last season when they were seventh in the league with a 109.1 rating with a virtually identical lineup.
The Lakers are on a three-game losing streak and are fresh off a 134-130 loss to the Hornets at home. That was the second consecutive game where they surrendered 134 points and showed just how badly they miss AD on defense. L.A. is six games below .500 and has a net rating of minus-1.8, and things could get ugly with Davis sidelined indefinitely.
LeBron James (27.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 6.7 apg) will be forced to dominate the ball in his absence, but the team has been poorly built around him. The Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league (league-low 10.2 treys per game at a 33.6% clip) and have struggled to defend the perimeter without Davis.
Backup center Thomas Bryant has replaced AD in the lineup and while he's working hard on the boards and finishing at the rim, he's a big drop-off from Davis on both ends of the floor. He also left the game against the Hornets late in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury, so his status for Christmas day is up in the air.
Lakers vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
The Mavs play at the third-slowest pace in the league and rank sixth in scoring defense with 109.4 ppg allowed. Los Angeles is at the opposite end of the spectrum with the fastest pace in the NBA and the fourth-worst scoring defense (117.8 ppg).
It's worth mentioning that even with Davis on the team, the Lakers were far from elite defensively. Before he injured his foot last Friday, they were 12th in the league in defensive rating (111.5), That number has plummeted to 124.7 in four games without Davis and L.A. doesn't have any wing defenders capable of matching up with Doncic on the perimeter.
That said, the Mavs also have some injury concerns that will impact them defensively. Their best rim protector Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring in practice last week and two of their top wing defenders in Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are questionable for Sunday.
Lakers vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Lakers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Mavericks.
Lakers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, December 25, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN, TSN |
